Apparent steel consumption in the European Union (EU) rose by 2.6 percent year on year to 38 million mt in the third quarter of 2018, according to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2019-2020/Q1 2019 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER). Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2018 show a further deceleration in year-on-year growth in apparent steel consumption and a lower quarterly volume as a result of seasonal destocking in the final quarter of the year.
According to EUROFER, in the third quarter of 2018 domestic deliveries from EU mills to the EU market barely increased compared with the same period of 2017; year-on-year growth amounted to a slight 0.4 percent. Much in contrast, third country imports rose by 15.4 percent year on year and amounted to almost 9 million mt.
EU steel market fundamentals are expected to remain moderately positive. Nevertheless, apparent steel consumption growth is forecast to slow down to only 0.5 percent in 2019 followed by 1.2 percent in 2020, less than one-third of the compound annual growth rate of apparent steel consumption over the period 2014-2018.
EUROFER warned that this very modest growth scenario - in combination with a global steel market that is suffering from overcapacity, slowing demand and as a consequence a flurry of protectionist measures - has the potential to develop into a major threat for EU market stability over the forecast period.