According to a report by Turkish daily Dünya, as a leading steel producer country, Turkey has lowered its expectations for the coming year. Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association (CIB) President Adnan Aslan anticipates that steel production and exports by the country might decrease in 2019, due to reasons such as lower demand from both domestic and international markets and China’s aggressive export policies.
CIB estimates a 30 percent decrease both in domestic and international sales, together with the capacity utilization rate going down from its current level of 80 percent to 60-65 percent. According to CIB data, producing 37.5 million mt in 2017, Turkey ranks as world’s eight and Europe’s second biggest crude steel producer. Similarly, as of the end of the same year, Turkey is world’s tenth biggest steel exporter with exports standing at 17.8 million mt in the given year.
Commenting on the outlook of the Turkish steel industry, Aslan estimates that export volume will reach 20.5 million mt at the end of this year, registering a value of more than $15 billion, however it is likely to see a sharp decrease in 2019. China’s aggressive export policies, rising global protectionism, Section 232 tariffs in the US, safeguard measures in EU and investigations targeting Turkish steel could negatively affect the Turkish steel industry, especially in the first half of 2019. According to Aslan, Turkey’s exports volume might go down to 15-16 million mt, indicating a 20-30 percent decrease from its current level.
According to the Dünya report, Aslan also shared his estimations regarding the domestic market, arguing for the possibility of a 30 percent contraction especially led by lower demand from the construction sector. However, it is stated that Aslan is not anticipating an employment decline in the steel sector, at least in the first three months of 2019, as he believes that employers would not be willing to lose qualified labor.