Chinese long product prices preparing for rise

SteelOrbis Shanghai Long product prices in all the regional markets saw both slight up and down movements over the past week. On the whole, the market was quite stable with the trading volume at normal level. In addition, inventories did not change much with the market still sufficiently confident. On September 22, the average price of 20 mm diameter HRB 335 rebar in the three major Chinese markets of Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou was up RMB 7/mt ($1) week on week at RMB 3,097/mt ($392), and that of 20 mm diameter HRB 400 rebar was up RMB 7/mt ($1) at RMB 3,217/mt ($407). The average price of 6.5 mm Q235 high speed wire rod remained constant at RMB 3,277/mt ($414) week on week. Over the past week, the Chinese long product market performed at its normal level. Generally speaking, the markets in eastern China were quite stable. In the beginning of the past week, markets in some regions climbed slightly. However, there was no expansion in trading volume. Furthermore, the prices of leading mills such as Shagang and Maanshan Steel for late-September are almost equal to those for early-September – an indication of the stablility of market prices. In southern China, the Guangzhou market saw a mixed performance at the beginning of the past week. Later, with commercial activity improving, the market tended to greater stability. However, at the end of the week market prices moved up a little driven by the ex-factory price hike of leading mills. Market prices in northern China also more or less maintained stability. However, affected by the supply from small-sized mills, wire rod prices in the Beijing market decreased RMB 20/mt ($3). At the end of the week, the five leading mills in northern China (Shougang, Tangshan Steel, Xuanhua Steel, Chengde Steel, and Tianjin Steel) announced their prices of construction steel for October. Rebar prices went up by RMB 50/mt ($6) to RMB 3'080/mt ($389) while wire rod prices remained steady, resulting in a relatively good impact on the market trend in northern China. Due to the upcoming National Day Holiday, traders are optimistically expecting centralized purchases before the holiday. Moreover, the price hike for October by the five leading mills in northern China also boosts the market trend. It is estimated that Chinese long product prices will increase over the next week. According to the statistics for August production released by China Iron & Steel Association (CISA), rebar production for the month totaled 6.84 million mt, up merely 50,000 mt compared with July and up 8 percent year on year, indicating an obviously lower growth in comparison with other products. Wire rod production in August totaled 6.28 million mt, up 30,000 mt month on month and 21 percent compared with the same period last year - representing fast year-on-year growth. Therefore, with the possible rise for long products prices in the future, the market performance of rebar will surely be stronger than that of wire rod.