In the January-February period this year, China’s coal imports (all types) totaled 77.222 million mt, among the historical highs for this period, up 1.5 percent year on year, according to the latest data released by China's General Administration of Customs (GACC).
This happened even though the total import coal target for 2026 has been set at 465 million mt, which is down by 5.1 percent from 2025, according to China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD). The imports are expected to be lower due to decline in production quotas for coal in Indonesia, but strong demand in China in early 2026 supported the total import volumes in the January-February period. In China itself, coal output (mostly presented by thermal coal) is predicted to increase by less than one percent in 2026 despite the decline in imports.
In the coking coal segment, China is expected to post bigger production cuts, in the range of five percent to eight percent, according to different analysts. This will be due to continued restrictions amid safety reasons. At the same time, demand for high grade coking coal will remain rather strong, so Mongolia, Russia and Australia have a chance to keep sales volumes stable in 2026 compared to 2025 or even increase them slightly in the case of cheaper coals from the first two countries.
