Australia’s iron ore export earnings are forecast to decline from A$123 billion expected in 2022-23 to A$110 billion by 2023-24 and to A$93 billion by 2024-25, due to an expectation of lower iron ore prices, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science.
The export earnings forecast for FY 2023-24 has been revised up from A$103 billion in the previous report, reflecting higher prices, a lower-than-expected exchange rate and a small increase in volumes.
Iron ore prices moderated in the April-June quarter, due to slowing global economic growth and an easing in the rate of recovery of Chinese steel production. Following a strong rebound in iron ore prices to a peak of over US$120/mt in March, the benchmark iron ore spot price fell to around US$105–110/mt in June this year. The recent price falls reflect lower demand from Chinese mills whose blast furnaces went into maintenance.
The report pointed out that the benchmark iron ore price is projected to average around US$74/mt in 2025.
