The Italian steel market continues to show signs of weakness, despite the recovery in prices recorded in some segments. According to the market report issued by Assofermet Acciai on October 9, sales by carbon flat steel service centers are down by an average of 15 percent, with declines exceeding 20 percent in some cases. The outlook for the final quarter of 2026 remains uncertain, while market participants are expressing concerns about the impact of European trade and environmental policies on the competitiveness of the steel supply chain.
Carbon flat steel - September recovery quickly loses momentum
Following a rebound in activity in early September, characterized by relatively lively trading and stronger demand, the carbon flat steel market began showing signs of weakness again after the first ten days of the month, disappointing expectations of a possible turnaround in the final part of the year. The first week of October confirmed the negative trend and, according to Assofermet, there are currently no indications of a significant improvement during the remainder of the month. Concerns also extend to the entire fourth quarter, against a backdrop of persistently weak demand, international conflicts and complex economic and trade relations with the United States.
The association also draws attention to the consequences of the European Union's environmental and protectionist policies. "The measures currently in place have a particularly significant impact on raw materials and basic steel products, without equivalent forms of protection being applied with the same effectiveness to semi-finished products and, above all, finished goods imported into the European Union," the report states, adding, "This creates a clear risk of a loss of competitiveness for the entire European processing and distribution supply chain."
Stainless steel - Volumes decline amid structurally weak demand
The stainless flat steel service center segment also recorded a negative September, with volumes significantly below those registered in the same month of 2025. Forecasts for October point to a further slowdown in activity.
According to Assofermet, the trend in actual demand is particularly concerning, as the contraction appears to be not only cyclical but also structural. Producers' lead times remain very short, indicating limited order books despite restrictions on imports.
The sharp increase in energy costs is also weighing on the sector. Although inventories are lower than at the beginning of the year, they remain at average levels and do not indicate any particular supply-side pressure.
Stockholding and distribution - Prices recover, but volumes continue to decline
For the stockholder segment, Assofermet describes a situation in which prices and demand "continue to move independently": producers are seeking to consolidate price increases, but demand remains insufficient to fully absorb them.
In the long steel segment, volumes are down compared to September 2025, while prices have gradually improved thanks to the cumulative increases recorded during the July-September quarter.
In the flat steel segment, sales value has also proved more resilient than volumes. Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have consolidated above the levels reached during the summer, and autumn price increases are beginning to take shape, although they have not been accompanied by a convincing recovery in demand. Cold rolled coil (CRC) prices are following the HRC trend with the usual time lag.
The situation is more challenging in the hollow sections segment, where both sales volumes and value are declining.
In the stainless steel segment, meanwhile, tubular products are recording a sharp decline in both volumes and value, long products are showing a positive trend on both fronts, and flat products are benefiting from the return of alloy surcharges, with a recovery for 316 grade.
Outlook - Caution in the fourth quarter amid new EU requirements
The fourth quarter of 2026 has therefore begun with mixed signals. On the one hand, producers are seeking to consolidate autumn price increases; on the other, demand remains too weak to support a sustained market recovery.
An additional source of uncertainty is the mandatory melt and pour documentation requirement for imported products, which came into force on October 1. According to Assofermet, the new requirement imposes additional administrative burdens on market participants and could contribute to changes in sourcing patterns over the medium term.
Against this backdrop, the association emphasizes the need for a cautious approach while awaiting more concrete signs of a recovery in demand and greater clarity regarding the evolution of the European trade and regulatory framework.
