SteelOrbis talked to Ji Seob CHOI, POSCO ASSAN TST CEO, regarding the latest developments in the stainless steel industry and effect of trade measures.
How would you describe the current state of the Turkish stainless steel sector?
After a prolonged slowdown in the Turkish stainless steel sector since 2022, we have made a cautious but hopeful start to 2025.
Although there were some signs of improvement in the market in the first quarter, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the US trade wars, and domestic and external uncertainties such as earthquakes prevented the market from recovering. Currently, we are going through a seasonally slow period. However, we expect the market to revive again after the US tariff wars come to an end in the third quarter and the ongoing antidumping investigation into cold rolled stainless steel is concluded.
The Turkish stainless steel sector, primarily as a domestic producer, faces serious challenges due to unfair competition from dumped imports. Ensuring and maintaining the stability of the steel industry, which forms the basis of the industry, is important for a balanced and sustainable market structure that is not dependent on imports. Unfortunately, producers sending dumped products to Turkey are not taking this balance into account. These practices, which not only bypass production costs but also distribution chains, are creating serious fragility in the sector. Our stance on protecting the market is fundamentally aimed at preventing such structural issues from arising.
On the other hand, this situation is not limited to the stainless steel sector. Similar trends are evident in many industrial sectors. We hear directly from some users who prefer imports because they are more cost-effective that they are complaining about competition from China in both the domestic and export markets. This picture shows us that the problem is not only that of the manufacturer, it is a problem we all share. Therefore, the solution can only be developed through joint action, common sense and cooperation.
Moreover, with the return of the Trump administration, protectionist trade policies are expected to strengthen worldwide. This will further increase the challenges facing the steel sector, including stainless steel. For this reason, we continue to expect that the necessary measures will be taken to protect the Turkish market.
What are your comments regarding demand and price trends?
Global economic structures are undergoing a profound transformation. Structures that were previously shaped by the principles of integration and free trade are now evolving into a more fragmented, strategic and protectionist order. This change is not only economic, it is also intertwined with political and geopolitical dynamics.
This environment, where trade policies are frequently redefined and customs regimes and logistics chains are rapidly changing, directly affects global demand. The weakening on the demand side naturally makes it difficult for prices to stabilize.
How do you assess import competition?
We are always open to competition and see it as an indispensable element of a healthy market structure. However, at this point, we are facing the problem of unfair competition. Some countries, which have created capacity far exceeding domestic demand with state support, are exporting this surplus at low prices, aiming not only to gain market share but also to weaken the production infrastructure of other countries.
This situation is not limited to price advantages; it creates a structure that increases dependency in the long term and threatens the sustainability of local production. Despite this, we have confidence in Turkey and its industrial potential. With this belief, we have made our investments here and continue to supply Turkish industrialists with high-quality, traceable, and sustainable stainless steel products. We aim to build not only today but also tomorrow.
We also believe that preserving and carrying forward production power is only possible through collective action and a sense of shared responsibility, not through individual efforts. Countries and structures that are able to compete in the sector while also working together are much more resilient and successful in the long term. Strengthening this understanding in Turkey will benefit us all.
The results of the antidumping investigation against products from China and Indonesia are expected. How will this development affect the market?
There have been occasional assessments in the public domain that prices may rise sharply as a result of the antidumping process. However, we believe that stainless steel prices are primarily determined by global and local demand levels, raw material prices such as nickel and chromium, production costs, and logistics conditions. Trade measures may influence prices within this framework; however, they are not expected to cause a sustained price increase on their own. Therefore, we can state that concerns about the investigation's outcome leading to artificial price movements in the market are unfounded.
As is known, our facility has a production capacity of up to 300,000 metric tons per year. If an effective trade policy is implemented against dumped products, we will be able to use this capacity more efficiently and reduce our unit costs. This will directly contribute to offering more competitive and sustainable prices in the domestic market.
We would also like to emphasize that such measures do not mean that imports will be completely cut off. Turkey is geographically very close to high-capacity production regions such as Europe, which are accessible with zero customs duties. Therefore, we believe that this process will not lead to a supply shortage in the market, but rather contribute to the formation of a healthier and more balanced structure.
On the other hand, it is a well-known fact that some producer countries in global trade have attempted to circumvent similar measures in the past through indirect means. In this regard, we believe that caution should be exercised against alternative supply chains that may be directed through third countries such as Vietnam and Taiwan in the coming period. We will continue to closely monitor the process and share information and views with the relevant institutions as necessary.
We view the antidumping process not as a protective reflex, but as a strategic balancing tool for the sustainability of the domestic production infrastructure. Rather than short-term price advantages, we focus on protecting our production capabilities in the medium and long term.
Can you provide information about your position and targets in export markets?
As in global markets, demand is weak in Turkey's regular export markets. However, thanks to our product quality, technical expertise and service reliability, our export activities continue steadily. As POSCO ASSAN TST, we are proud to have become one of the leading suppliers to major white goods manufacturers operating in the European Union. These partnerships contribute significantly not only to our company but also to Turkey's export performance.
In addition, we have long-standing, regular, and strong business relationships with many steel service centers in the EU market. We strive to conduct this process not only with end-users and service centers but also with all stakeholders in the EU stainless steel ecosystem based on mutual respect, price stability and long-term trust.
Behind our success in the European market lies not only our production and logistics capabilities, but also the EU industry's capacity for high-value-added production and the corresponding demand for quality, technically consistent materials. By providing specifications, quality standards, and delivery reliability tailored to this need, we have established ourselves as a long-term and stable supplier in the region.
In the short term, we aim to maintain our current export volume, and in the medium term we seek to grow in the high-quality segment through a selective approach. For us, quality takes precedence over quantity in exports. Long-term relationships, traceability, and technical compatibility form the foundation of our trade.
Do you have any new investment plans?
We have reserved land that would allow us to increase our capacity if suitable market conditions arise. We are open to evaluating this option if we are confident that the demand structure is strengthening in a sustainable manner. At present, we are seeing a gradual increase in demand for cold rolled products, but dumped imports remain a serious risk factor.
How are current economic conditions affecting the market?
The global transformation process is naturally affecting Turkey as well. However, we have confidence in the Turkish economy and industry. Our priority is to ensure that Turkish industrialists have regular, high-quality and sustainable access to the raw materials they need. In line with this, we continue to fulfill our production responsibilities with consistency.
How is 2025 going, and what are your expectations for the rest of the year?
The first quarter of 2025 was dynamic and positive. However, the second quarter saw a significant slowdown in domestic demand.
The third quarter has been more stable so far. Our expectations for the last quarter of the year are cautiously positive. We anticipate that a healthier pace of production can be achieved by the end of the year if there is a gradual recovery in domestic demand and if prices stabilize.
We are continuing to focus on productivity and long-term partnerships during this process. Our primary goal is to offer our customers a competitive and reliable supply structure by effectively utilizing our production capacity. We believe that fair and predictable trade conditions will create a strong balance between producers and industrialists.