SteelOrbis talked to Barış Yılmaz, Company Manager of Komtrade Ltd regarding the latest developments in the stainless steel industry.
Could you provide an update on the current situation in the Turkish stainless steel sector?
Due to the ongoing antidumping investigation, Turkey’s import figures for the first and second quarters have increased. Our stainless steel industry is 100 percent dependent on imports because we do not have integrated stainless steel production in Turkey. We import intermediate goods and produce intermediate goods. The total market size exceeds 800,000 metric tons and has a volume of $2 billion. Turkey currently has a flat cold rolling capacity of 250,000 metric tons. Total consumption exceeds 550,000 metric tons. Our longs production is limited to pipe production using flat raw materials. New cold rolling mill investments are planned. New line investments to increase the capacity of pipe production facilities are ongoing. Turkey is the 10th largest consumer of stainless steel in the world. Turkey is the only country among these 10 countries that does not have integrated stainless steel production.
What can you say about the situation regarding demand and prices?
The stainless steel industry started 2025 on a weak note. Domestic demand contracted in the second quarter. Prices dropped to their lowest levels of the year by the end of the second quarter. Despite reduced production by Chinese and Indonesian producers due to weak demand in Europe and the Far East, this had no impact on prices. We expect demand to decline further in the third quarter due to seasonal effects. While a recovery in demand is anticipated in the final quarter of the year, we expect 2025 to perform below 2024 levels. The other major challenge in 2025 will be the significant decline in profit margins.
What will be the impact on the market of the antidumping investigations opened by Turkey against China and Indonesia, which are expected to conclude soon?
This will lead to price increases, particularly in white goods, kitchen equipment, industrial kitchens and pipe products, due to rising input costs. This situation will have a negative impact on inflation, which is being kept under control.
How do you assess the protectionist policies spreading worldwide?
It is necessary to protect cold rolling mills in our country, which does not have integrated stainless steel production. This protection must be implemented in a measured way; otherwise, these protectionist measures will increase the input costs of producers using these products, negatively affecting their competitiveness in export markets. Rising raw material prices will increase the prices of final products, leading to an increase in imports coming into the market. Protection in this sense must be comprehensive; other industries must also be protected, or the protection of cold rolling mills must be implemented in a measured and comprehensive manner.
How are current economic conditions affecting the market?
We are naturally facing a recession and a slowdown as a result of the fight against inflation. The problem lies in the duration of this process and the uncertainty surrounding the timing of when a return to normalcy will begin. In other words, prolonged uncertainty deepens the crisis and negatively impacts industrialists' decisions and plans for the future.
How is 2025 shaping up, and what are your expectations for the remainder of the year?
We anticipate that demand will improve in the fourth quarter of 2025, and, with the successful implementation of economic policies, particularly interest rate and foreign exchange policies, we expect the losses incurred in 2025 to be offset in 2026.