US scrap prices to trend sideways to slightly up in March

After the diverse movements of US scrap prices in February, it is expected that the domestic scrap prices will stay more or less the same in some regions, and may trend slightly up in others, for March.

While there is not much scrap buying activity seen in both the domestic and export market, scrap supply is also short due to the bad weather. Snow slamming the East, Midwest and South this month has made scrap collection difficult and delayed scrap shipments into dealers’ yards.

In addition to the slow scrap flow and slowly operating processing equipment, market sources expect that domestic mills will still have to buy some scrap in March in order to meet the slowly increasing production and the increasing operating capacity; therefore, it is expected that US scrap prices will go sideways to slightly up in March, depending on the region.

Prime grades of scrap are still in tighter supply than obsolete grades.  There is anticipation in the market that busheling prices would go up $35 to $55/lt ($34.45 to $54.13/mt), while shredded scrap and HMS I prices would go sideways to slightly up by approximately $5/lt ($4.92/mt) in March, depending on the region. Currently, East Coast busheling prices are at $375 to 385/lt ($369.08 to $378.92/mt), shredded scrap prices are at the level of $330 to $340/lt ($324.79 to $334.63/mt), and HMS I prices stand at $290 to $300/lt ($285.42 to $295.26/mt).

The latest USITC data shows that the total amount of ferrous scrap exports from the US in December was 1,564,000 mt, representing an increase of 193,000 mt when compared to the figure of 1,371,000 mt in November.

The main recipients of shredded scrap from the US in December were: China and Turkey, at 187,000 mt each; Vietnam, at 72,000 mt; South Korea, at 70,000 mt; Brazil, at 54,000 mt; Taiwan, at 52,000 mt; and India, at 46,000 mt. Countries that imported smaller amounts of shredded scrap from US during the month include Indonesia, Peru, Malaysia, and Greece.

For HMS I grade scrap, the top recipients of US exports in December were: Turkey, at 173,000 mt; South Korea, at 116,000 mt; Taiwan, at 79,000 mt; Malaysia, at 42,000 mt; and China, at 29,000 mt. Additionally, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam imported some tonnage of HMS I grade scrap from the US during the period.