Domestic scrap prices remained sideways to down in the first half of May, due mainly to improved scrap flow; however some industry insiders suggest a slight increase could be on the horizon for June.
Although the scrap flow is decent, May domestic scrap prices didn't drop as much as anticipated because of increased export scrap prices. In the beginning of May, US East Coast busheling scrap and HMS I prices stayed the same while shredded scrap prices came down by approximately $10/lt ($9.84/mt) when compared to early April prices. Currently, in the East Coast, busheling scrap prices are in the level of $510 to $520/lt ($501.95 to $511.79/mt), shredded scrap prices are at $440 to $450/lt ($433.05 to $442.89/mt), and HMS I prices are between $420 and $430/lt ($413.37 to $423.21/mt).
The warm spring weather allows a smooth scrap flow and easy scrap collection, so acquiring scrap tonnages is not a concern for the time being. However, market sources mention that the strong scrap flow will not last long, as there are plentiful obsolete scrap availabilities in the market.
On the other hand, the current export scrap prices registered an increase of approximately $20/mt from about a month ago. Some optimistic industry insiders have speculated that the improved export scrap market will push domestic scrap prices up in June and some domestic scrap suppliers may hold up the scrap supply for export, resulting in lower scrap availability in the domestic market.
The latest USITC data illustrates that the total amount of ferrous scrap exports from the US in March was 1,525,000 mt, reflecting a decrease of 44,000 mt month-over-month and an increase of 445,000 mt year-over-year.
The main recipients of shredded scrap form the US in March were: Turkey, at 120,000 mt; China, at 118,000 mt; Thailand, at 88,000 mt; Malaysia and Taiwan, at 56,000 mt each; South Korea, at 43,000 mt; Mexico, at 33,000 mt; Guatemala, at 32,000 mt; and Peru, at 31,000 mt. Countries that imported smaller amounts of shredded scrap from the US during the month include India, Kiribati, Canada, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
For HMS I grade scrap, the top recipients of US exports in March were: South Korea, at 164,000 mt; Turkey, at 120,000 mt; Taiwan, at 114,000 mt; and Malaysia, at 38,000 mt. India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Canada also imported smaller tonnages of HMS I grade scrap from the US during the month as well.
In the pig iron market, prices remain at high levels at $530 to $540/mt CFR Nola. It is expected that pig iron prices will increase in the coming months when the auto industry resumes seasonal raw materials buying in summer and lead to a shortage of prime grade scrap in the market.