US export scrap pricing outlook: stable to positive

Friday, 26 May 2017 20:04:21 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego

On the East coast, the last mid-May ex-US scrap deal to Turkey, which included HMS I/II 80:20 scrap, was completed at an average price of $278/mt CFR. Since then Turkey has completed scrap deals ex-Canada, ex-Baltic, and ex-EU at approximately $270-277/mt CFR. The latest ex-EU deals have featured HMS I/II 75:25 scrap in the mix and have traded at $270-273/mt CFR Turkey. The stable strength in Turkey’s import scrap purchase prices along with a strong domestic market is positive news to US scrap dealers as they begin negotiations for the June scrap buy-cycle. Given the pricing, some sources believe that an additional ex-US scrap deal to Turkey is in the horizon. The deal would be welcome to ensure exporters limit the movement of scrap offers inland.

While low volume deals from the US West coast for containerized HMS I/II 80:20 continue being heard at $235-240/mt CFR Taiwan with prevailing offers at $240-245/mt CFR Taiwan, active trading of H2 scrap in the Asian markets and a firmer Japanese H2 domestic pricing may give US West coast export prices the opportunity to improve.

According to sources, Japanese H2 domestic pricing and corresponding export pricing is firming up and Japanese mills are heard importing scrap. A large Japanese mill has been heard purchasing small volumes of South Korean origin H2 equivalent scrap this week at $241/mt CFR Japan. Additional deals were also traded for South Korean H2 scrap to Taiwan at $221-222/mt FOB South Korea, estimated at $240-245/mt CFR Taiwan, and also H1/2 50:50 to Thailand at $230/mt FOB South Korea, which is estimated at $250-255/mt CFR Thailand.

Given the active trading of H2 in the Asian markets at $240-245/mt CFR Taiwan levels, some sources believe this trend gives US West coast scrap an opportunity to increase the number of cargo placements and potentially increase the price of effective deals on containerized HMS I/II 80:20 above $240/mt CFR Taiwan. Containerized HMS I/II 80:20 scrap has dropped from the $280/mt CFR Taiwan level in mid-March to $255-260/mt CFR Taiwan in late March, and on a downtrend since then that saw ex-US transactions hit $230-232/mt CFR Taiwan and rebounded to $235-240/mt CFR Taiwan, a stable level through most of May.

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