Scrap export activity out of the US has been largely silent over the past week with little-to-no sales being reported. This past week, no cargos were sold to Turkey as Turkish mills have been abstaining from booking scrap from the US. Sources tell SteelOrbis that even Europe has sold very little to Turkey in recent trading days and only a small amount has been sold from Romania. A couple weeks ago, when US domestic scrap prices settled down anywhere from $30-$60/lt for October, the lowest ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 transaction price for Turkey was recorded at $365/mt CFR. But since then, US exporters have been looking to increase prices, and Turkish mills have been unwilling to take an increase just yet. Over the next week, however, one East Coast exporter explained that Turkey will need to begin buying scrap for winter production, which may begin to push prices higher.
Export scrap activity off the US West Coast has also been close to non-existent recently, and while a bulk scrap cargo of HMS I/II was sold to Korea at $377/mt CFR about a week and a half ago, few other deals have been concluded. Once US domestic scrap prices settle for November, however, it may reignite the export market if it appears US prices will rise throughout the winter, as they traditionally do. Many dealers held on to scrap in early October instead of selling it at lower prices in anticipation that the market was reaching a bottom. With few sales taking place mid-month so far, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where the US scrap market will settle in the beginning of November, but some are optimistic the prices could increase as much as $20-$30/lt, especially if export activity and prices pick up ahead of time. Already, there have been indications that dealers are unwilling to sell scrap at anything below or even in line with October levels.