As Turkey comes close to completing its scrap purchases for March shipment, deep sea scrap prices have stabilized once again. The overall sentiment in the market remains positive amid the upward expectations in the EU and the US domestic markets. However, Turkish mills continue to report steel sales on the low side, with domestic rebar prices struggling to move up.
The latest ex-US deal done by an Iskenderun-based producer was closed yesterday, February 25, with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price standing at $362.5/mt CFR and shredded at $382.5/mt CFR. The cargo will be shipped in March, with a total tonnage of 27,500 mt, SteelOrbis has learned. This price level is in tandem with yesterday’s ex-US booking.
An ex-Poland deal has also been closed by a Marmara-based producer, with HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $358/mt CFR. The ex-Baltic scrap prices remain to be in the range of $358-360/mt CFR for now.
Market sources report that the sentiment in Europe has changed for the better. Expectations in the local European scrap market are not for stability or even a slight softening anymore. On the contrary, sources report that scrap prices in Italy and Germany are set to move up at least €5-10/mt in March. These upward expectations are supported by the strong sentiments in the US. Market sources report that the local US scrap market is set to move up by at least $40/mt in the March buy-cycle, and some premium grades may increase by more than some expect. A supplier of ex-US and ex-EU scrap to Turkey said today, “We all see the mood in the supplier regions as positive, mainly due to the consecutive announcements from President Trump. But I also see that Turkish mills are not very happy with the current scrap prices, signaling their lack of sales, particularly for rebar.” Another source added, “Their [Turkish mills] rebar sales are not good, though they continue to sell wire rod, profiles and flat steel. There is no alternative to buying from the import billet segment due to the longer delivery period for billet. Therefore, Turkish mills will continue with scrap to be shipped in April.” A source at a major Turkish producer admitted that prices have some more room to increase, commenting “We see the mood in the supplier regions. Not only scrap but steel prices in some regions are recovering sharply. So, a further increase in deep sea prices would not surprise me. Also, we are expecting premium grade availability to be lower from the US in the coming period, as their steel industry is very likely to increase their capacities due to the incoming tariffs.” Rising scrap prices are also impacting the domestic rebar market in Turkey, though sources do not report a fundamental change in the demand side for now. Some market sources think that demand may increase in the coming week ahead of Ramadan which is due to start on March 1, but this may remain temporary. “It is just a traditional preparation. No one actually stops trading in Ramadan. But again, the season is suitable for traders to start restocking,” a player commented. Currently, the local rebar prices in Turkey remain in the range of $550-575/mt ex-works.
As SteelOrbis reported today, import billet prices have increased in Turkey, following the inching up of scrap prices and the positivity in China, while only a few buyers have made any serious move towards purchases. Currently, ex-China billet offers are closer to $485/mt CFR, versus $475-478/mt CFR a week earlier. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has remained stable at $435-440/mt FOB Black Sea as sellers have mainly been staying out of the market. Turkish integrated steel producer Kardemir is expected to announce its offers either on February 27 or next Tuesday, and its price will largely define the bids for import material in the Karabuk area.