With import scrap prices for Turkey rising in a new deal this week, the market mood has become even more positive. The uncertainties regarding US tariffs are still having an impact, though market sources report that the fundamentals of the scrap market mostly point to an upward trend.
SteelOrbis has learned that a Marmara-based producer has concluded an ex-Sweden booking of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $365.5/mt CFR, with shredded and bonus grade scrap at $385.5/mt CFR. This price is $5/mt higher than the previous ex-Baltic scrap prices in actual deals. The latest deal has also pushed up price estimations for other supplier regions, with ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap now standing at $365.5/mt CFR and ex-EU scrap at $360/mt CFR.
Turkey’s import scrap volume in 2024 totaled 20.04 million mt, with 4.5 million mt from the US. The EU was the leading scrap supplier to Turkey, with the US in second place. As reported by SteelOrbis, the US government has officially implemented 25 percent tariffs on all imports from its two leading trading partners, Mexico and Canada, as of yesterday, March 4. According to SteelOrbis’ data, the US imported 4.35 million mt of scrap in 2024, while exporting 13.02 million mt. The tariffs and planned taxes are expected to increase US-based steel producers’ needs for scrap as they will be raising their capacity utilization rates. Therefore, the available volume for export may decline and/or scrap export prices may increase. “We expect prices to move up in any case. Domestic scrap prices are more attractive as compared to exports. The most recent price rises were not fully reflected in exports. Meanwhile, the volume coming out of the US has already declined,” a player from the US commented. It may be noted that US Midwest scrap in the Ohio Valley was up $35-$45 ($35-46/mt) in February as compared to January, while ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices increased by $13.5/mt during February. “This positivity in the US is not driven by fundamentals, but rather by sentiments,” Tao Bai from EMR commented yesterday, March 4, in an online conference held in Turkey, adding, “Actually, we have not seen the actual demand for HRC yet.” On the other hand, this optimism is causing Europeans to expect higher domestic scrap prices in March. “While ex-US scrap availability is set to decline and ex-US scrap prices are on the rise, European sellers would take the opportunity to raise their offers too,” another source reported. A Germany-based sub-collector today reported that domestic scrap prices shall increase by €20/mt in March to catch up with exports, “Unlike the US, our export prices are higher than the local ones. We anticipate a €10/mt increase over the next weeks, though it should be €20/mt if EU-based producers want to compete with exports.” According to Reuters, “the European Commission proposed yesterday, March 4, to borrow up to 150 billion euros ($157.76 billion) to lend to EU governments under a rearmament plan driven by Russia's war in Ukraine and fears that Europe can no longer be sure of US protection. Von der Leyen put forward the 150 billion euro fund for priorities such as air defence, missiles and drones as part of a package of proposals that she said could mobilise up to 800 billion euros for European defence.” According to Euronews, “[Germany’s] CDU leader Friedrich Merz has revealed plans for a new €500 billion special fund aimed at boosting infrastructure and defence spending.” A Germany-based source SteelOrbis talked to today said these funds will also support the steel industry in the coming months. As we are looking to a protectionist world now, the EU’s decision on quotas will be important with regard to Turkey’s exports. In the online meeting held yesterday, Kutay Ülkü from Tata Steel commented, “Everyone is talking about the possible opportunities arising due to the US tariffs, but losing shares in the EU market to lower quotas is also a possibility.” Having mainly talked about the current US tariffs, market players agreed that Trump’s speeches signal further taxes and tariffs, which are not clearly outlined yet. Therefore, the uncertainties surrounding global trading continue for now.