As a result of the increasing negative sentiment in Turkey’s import scrap market, Turkish scrap market has collapsed today, on April 11, with an ex-St. Petersburg deal done by an Izmir-based producer, with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price standing at $350/mt CFR. While Russian origin scrap is usually $5/mt cheaper than other Baltic material, most market sources report this is not the end of the price decline in the market.
European suppliers had been collecting scrap in the range of €280-290/mt DAP, with rare bids from exporters at €275/mt DAP. SteelOrbis has learned that as of today, April 11, some scrap exporters have cut their collection quotations to €270/mt DAP. Despite the sharp fall observed over the past week (earlier last week, collection prices were at €310/mt DAP), the euro-dollar exchange rate at €1.14 to the dollar is still an obstacle for European sellers. “Mathematically, European scrap suppliers cannot cut prices below $360/mt CFR, but I think we have passed that level anyway. There are around 15-16 offers from the EU and the US in the market, maybe slightly higher with the silent ones. We hear that European yards are carrying high tonnages of inventory, also exerting pressure on prices. We [Turkish mills] have no appetite to buy scrap due to the almost halted steel trade inland as well as the cheaper billet offers,” a source at a Turkish mill said today. A European scrap supplier commented “I was expecting a fall, but not a sharp one like this. I do not think the Europeans can accept such prices [meaning lower than $350/mt CFR Turkey] with the current euro-dollar rate.” Another European scrap seller disagreed, saying, “I think we will be forced to accept losses in this round. The sentiment, globally, is very negative.” A third scrap exporter said $340/mt CFR for European scrap will be seen in the end, adding, “There is nothing supporting the market. Steel trade is not recovering. Things are changing daily on the international scene, everyone is cautious. Turkish mills are failing to sell products. Before they see some sales, they are unwilling to buy scrap even at the lower levels recorded in each deal.” A source at one Turkish producer stated, “I do not think this is merely the impact of the US tariffs or the trade war. Turkey’s own dynamics also do not support local traders much. Late 2024, we were saying the first half of this year could be hard. In the end, we have ended up where we are and we will now have to look to the second half of the year.”
With this week’s declines, the Turkish scrap market has lost all the increases recorded since early February. On February 2, the average HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price in Turkey was at $349/mt CFR, with the price subsequently moving up to $379/mt CFR on March 29, while today, April 11, the price stands at $350/mt CFR, all average prices. Having said that, it is important to point out that 2025 started with the average deep sea HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price standing at $350/mt CFR, with the bottom level of prices at $333/mt CFR recorded on January 16.
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