October US scrap pricing is seen mixed this week following the recent steady to lower settles posted in the September scrap market, insiders told SteelOrbis this week. While one group of respondents to a SteelOrbis survey sees October scrap potentially higher as a result of increased long steel production in the late-3rd and 4th quarters -which could require more scrap- the other camp points to continued low US scrap demand, plentiful mill inventories (especially busheling) and an expectation for low US East Coast export requirements next month as a key reason for a lower October scrap pricing expectation.
During the recent September monthly buy-cycle negotiations, US scrap grades -with the exception of prime scrap grades- settled sideways for a fourth month. Prime grades only, settled $20/gt lower as a result of reports of plentiful busheling inventories at mills and continued low demand expectations, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
“US Midwest shredded scrap, which is most important for rebar production, closed the month sideways again for a fourth month,” said one US Midwest long steel importer that follows US scrap pricing following the September settlement. “There’s just not much moving on scrap,” he said. “Markets should pick up soon as more people return from vacations, however, the US economy continues to show signs of slowing down as more deportations happen and lower job numbers reflect a further slow down in construction activity.”
Last week, insiders told SteelOrbis that yearly mill maintenance programs that begin in September and typically end in November would limit local mill scrap buys during the September scrap negotiations. They added that prime supply remains abundant since mills were expected to buy more prime scrap during August supply negotiations because many mill buyers expected US President Trump to follow though on threats to implement 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian pig iron, a key component of US steel production. Once Trump later recanted on the threats -and mills failed to buy- suppliers found they had too much prime supply on hand. Insiders also added that continued declines in US flat steel pricing also were not supportive of domestic scrap.
“Our longer-term indicators are turning bullish,” said one US Gulf Coast-based long steel insider. “Scrap is stable short-term, but it is expected to strengthen into late-Q4-Q1 2026, as (long steel) mills ramp up production and inventories thin.”
“We’re hearing strong sideways for October,” said another US East Coast scrap supplier, who was unwilling to supply a reason for the increased price expectation.
“Sideways to down is looking more realistic to me,” lamented another US Gulf Coast market insider, reflecting on reports of a potential recovery in scrap pricing for October. “The Turks are not buying much scrap due to continued weak demand.”
Today, export market insiders told SteelOrbis the Turkish market was surprised when an Izmir-based mill bought and ex-Netherlands cargo for October shipment of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $337 CFR TR, sharply below earlier reported trades.
“This means ex-US pricing could drop to $335/mt CFR, TR, which is $7/mt lower than the most recent ex-US deals done in Turkey, so negative sentiment persists,” the insider said.
During September scrap buy-cycle negotiations, following three months of steady pricing, US Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley, settled $20/gt lower at $415-440/gt ($423-448/mt), while shredded scrap settled flat to August at $375-380/gt ($381-387/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades traded flat for a fourth month at $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-387/mt), respectively, SteelOrbis monthly scrap data shows.
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material settled $20/gt less at $360-380/gt ($367-387/mt), while shredded grades settled flat to August at $325-335/gt ($330-342/mt). P&S and HMS grades finished sideways to the $295-305/gt ($300-310/mt) and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respective August settles, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
