US scrap pricing forecasts for October moved lower this week on a combination of expectations for lower outage-related scrap purchases by domestic mills during October as plant maintenance continues, and because scrap export data from SteelOrbis reveals Turkish and other scrap buyers have reduced their appetite for US scrap as global steel demand wanes and countries enact more protectionist trade policies.
For the first week in the last four weeks surveyed, the expectation for reduced October scrap prices now includes Midwest shredded scrap grades, with a hint of lower pricing possible for obsolete scrap grades like HMS and P&S scrap. Scrap insiders also said early this week that domestic mills had begun canceling remaining September deliveries, a sure sign that mills expect lower prices could be forthcoming.
“It sounds like the scrap market is going to be down for October,” remarked one Midwest scrap insider. “Mills have started to cancel their September orders.”
“This week, primes are down $20-30/gt, while shred pricing is now also seen $10-20/gt lower,” another mill-based scrap buyer said. “There is very ample inventory, and reduced demand at mills in outage will drive prices down. Also, for the first time, we’ve also seen lots of shred offers in the Midwest this week.”
And, while obsolete scrap grades might be steady to down, insiders hinted a solid market expectation remains elusive until October buy-cycle negotiations begin in earnest next week.
As was previously reported by SteelOrbis, monthly customs data from the Washington, DC-based International Trade Administration (ITA) shows for the first seven months of 2025, exports of ferrous scrap to Turkey alone fell by nearly 19 percent from the equivalent period in 2024. And while there are currently no US tariffs on US steel scrap exports to Mexico and Canada -the US’ two primary trading partners- a 50 percent increase in import tariffs that began in June could indirectly impact exports of steel scrap, especially to Mexico, insiders say.
Near term, insiders predict domestic steel demand could continue to wane into the 4th quarter because historically, during the period from September through November, US mills perform annual maintenance operations, reducing their scrap requirements as plants remain shuttered. One US contact told SteelOrbis late this week scrap pricing might rise late in the 4th quarter after planned maintenance ends and demand for scrap at mills improves.
SteelOrbis' sources overseas report that Turkish mills have begun seeking scrap cargoes for November shipments. Insiders say Turkey has a long way go before completing its purchases for this period. Scrap suppliers in both side of the Adriatic are offering higher prices to Turkish mills and managed to catch a slight increase during most recent bookings from the US and Baltic regions.
Based on this week’s updated October outlook, an average $25/gt decline expected for prime scrap grades could net a delivered US Midwest prime busheling scrap price in the US Ohio Valley at $390-415/gt ($396-422/mt), while shredded scrap at an average $15/gt decline, could settle near $360-365/gt ($366-371/mt) on a delivered basis. Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades at current flat levels might trade for a fifth month at $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-351/mt), respectively, SteelOrbis monthly scrap data shows.
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material could dip on average $25/gt to $335-355/gt ($341-361/mt), while shredded grades could tip $15/gt less at $310-320/gt ($315-325/mt). P&S and HMS grades could likely finish flat to potentially less at $295-305/gt ($300-310/mt) and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respectively, to September settles, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.