US scrap prices for November are seen mostly sideways to recent lower October settlements, fueled by continuing mill maintenance and unremarkable finished steel demand, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Despite claims from some scrap suppliers surveyed who reported that some yards were withholding supplies from the market, it appears from most surveyed that inflows into Midwest and Northeast collection yards remain active despite recent price declines.
“Yes sir, (collections are) flowing well,” remarked one Upstate New York-based scrap dealer, following the recent lower October settlements. “With the mills, we’ve been pretty busy,” he said. “The market was down $10/gt on shredded and P&S scrap, and down $20/gt on busheling. Everything else finished sideways.” Another US Midwest supplier remarked that his spot scrap demand remained limited. “We’re not really hearing much yet for November,” he said, leaning towards a sideways settlement. “A lot of people seem to be holding tons back. It’s very slow from a trucking standpoint right now, and so, the speculation is that December and January will be up.”
“I think what we’re seeing now, we’ll see through the end of the year,” commented another Midwest-based scrap insider, predicting a sideways November settlement. Another mill-based insider said, “sideways is the best call right now.” Still another added, “I have heard some (suppliers) say pricing for November could be up as many (hot roll mills) could be post maintenance, and the Turks didn’t buy billets from China this month.”
Based on a current mostly sideways to October settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap -which settled on average $20/gt less during October negotiations- could settle for November in the US Ohio Valley at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt) on a delivered basis, while shredded scrap, which saw a recent $10/gt monthly decline, could settle sideways near $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt), delivered. Ohio Valley HMS grades which moved $10/gt lower in October, could trade flat near $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled on average also $10/gt less in US domestic Midwest markets, could trade for November near $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt).
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material could trade at $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following October’s $20/gt delivered decline, while shredded grades are currently seen likely to settle flat near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt) following the recent $10/gt October price decline. P&S and HMS grades could likely finish flat to the $10-15/gt lower October delivered price settles near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt) respectively, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
