March ferrous scrap pricing expectations in the US Midwest and Northeast fell sharply late this week from earlier highs, following reports that US President Trump has delayed implementation of his tariff policy on Mexico and Canada until April 2, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
US Ohio Valley market calls at an average of $45/gt ($46/mt) higher are now called $20-$30/gt ($20-$30/mt) up from where the February market settled.
“Following the news on Trump’s delay of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the mills are taking full advantage of this and lowering their offers for March scrap,” one Midwest scrap supplier told SteelOrbis at press time, adding, “Pricing is still up, but not to the extent that we saw earlier in the week.”
While March scrap had yet to settle, the Midwest supplier said the extent of price declines for March scrap off recent highs will depend on how much scrap is currently available and where mill demand is projected for the current month.
“Right now, the mills are looking like they’ll be offering sideways to up $20-30/gt. However, it will really depend on how much supply is currently out there and how substantial (mill) demand is going to be,” he said.
Based on a revised $25/gt ($25/mt) premium to February scrap settled prices, Ohio Valley HMS 1 could settle near $400-420/gt ($406-427/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded scrap could settle near $455-460/gt ($462-467/mt) on delivered basis. P&S is likely to settle near $446-456/gt ($453-463/mt) delivered to customer, while prime busheling scrap could settle at around $480-505/gt ($488-513/mt) delivered to customer.
On the US East Coast, based on a most-quoted and revised plus $10/gt ($10/mt) expectation against the February settlement, domestic HMS could settle at $365-380/gt ($371-386/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded could settle at $395-405/gt ($401-411/mt) for domestic delivery. Domestic P&S could settle on a delivered to customer basis at $365-375/gt ($371-381/mt), while prime busheling scrap could settle at $420-440/gt ($427-447mt) on a delivered to customer basis.
On March 4, tariffs of 25 percent went into effect for the US’ two major North American trading partners Mexico and Canada. Tariffs on China were also doubled by Trump from 10 percent to 20 percent. On March 12, new Section 232 tariffs of 25 percent are still proposed for all remaining US trading partners, with no previously included country exemptions and tariff carve-outs available this go-round, Trump said in a recent press conference.
Some insiders are beginning to hear early chatter about the month of April, which is seen sideways to potentially lower this go-round.
“I think people are kind of nervous about the scrap situation,” said one Midwest scrap supplier, adding, “The talk out there is that people are going to be selling long during March, which means they will be selling more tons than they realistically are going to have on hand, with the hope of buying it back at lower prices later.”
The insider added that many suppliers would prefer a more gradual rise or decline in scrap prices versus the large spikes recently seen by some, as scrap supplies remain limited owing to a continuation of cold weather and snow across much of the eastern two-thirds of the US.
“I don’t think anybody really wants to see scrap prices balloon up and then crash later,” the insider said. “Most scrap dealers would rather see a more gradual pricing response,” he noted.
On the finished steel side, this week steelmaker Nucor increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for hot rolled coils by another $40/nt ($44/mt) to $900/nt ($992/mt) FOB mill. Since the beginning of 2025, Nucor’s CSP has increased 20 percent, mostly on the back of rising scrap prices, steel market insiders told SteelOrbis.