Earlier this week, Turkey’s import scrap market continued its rising trend, while market sources reported that there was more support coming from the local rebar market. Scrap suppliers were resisting lower or stable bids from Turkey. Sources agreed that only one Izmir-based steel producer has completed its deep sea scrap procurements for April shipment, while all the others still need cargoes for shipment in April.
However, the sentiment in the market has changed very quickly on March 19, amid political turbulence. On Wednesday, Turkish mills were not showing much interest in deep sea scrap cargoes, instead making inquiries for short sea cargoes to lower risks amid the high volatility observed in the Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate. Trading in the Turkish steel and scrap markets has almost come to a halt, given the sudden sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira against the US dollar following the detention of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu today. İmamoğlu was expected to be one of the main rivals of Turkey’s President Erdoğan in the next presidential election. The Turkish lira depreciated from 36.69 against the dollar to 40.51 earlier on March 19, before settling back at 38.02 at around 17:00 Istanbul time.
The volatility of the Turkish lira was curbed the next day, March 20, Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate settling around 37 to a dollar. However, market players remained cautious and are still trying to evaluate the economic repercussions of the recent developments. Meanwhile, ex-US scrap cargoes are offered at $385/mt CFR and above, with the ex-EU scrap sellers still voicing prices at around $380s/mt CFR. “Probably, everyone will accept a bit of a discount on prices in the next week. From the current levels of $375-381/mt CFR on average, $2-3/mt of a rise is acceptable, a source from a major mill commented.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 0.8 percent week on week. The prices are now 5.73 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $375-381/mt CFR.
Following up on strong monthly scrap prices observed since the beginning of 2025, the expectation for domestic US scrap prices in April are seen steady to down, as supply from sub-collectors is reported to be building, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. Recent gains in scrap prices could also be moderating as finished steel pricing, namely flat steel, appears to have peaked.
“There’s plenty of material available now at these prices,” said one Midwest mill scrap buyer. “We’re seeing April down slightly.”
“We see the April market down quite possibly,” remarked another scrap market insider. “Tube City in Pittsburgh has dropped (its offer) by $10/gt,” he said. “Exporters are going to be dropping their prices as well.”
“It’s basis supply and demand,” remarked still another Midwest scrap broker. “As supply increases with higher recent prices paid to collectors, we’re hearing the April market sideways to down a bit.”
Scrap purchase prices in the local German market marked posted an average rise of €15/mt, and the quantities bought by mills have declined in volume. Moreover, due to the strength of the euro against the dollar, scrap exports have been weaker than expected.
In terms of scrap supply, inflows saw a slight improvement due to a modest revival of demolitions, which may help increase the availability of old scrap. As for exports, on March 18 sales prices to export yards rebounded to €310/mt DAP for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap, up by €5-7/mt week on week. Bids for bonus grades were at €332/mt DAP.
The local scrap market in Italy cooled down during this third week of March, in contrast to SteelOrbis last week’s report. Some mills have kept their scrap purchase prices unchanged on the local market, while others granted limited increases by tops €5-10/mt. Scrap availability seems to be in slight recovery, but still not enough to compensate for the demand.
In short, the overall scenario is shaky on the local scrap market in Italy, but SteelOrbis considers that the upward trend is proceeding, slowly but gradually, and the peak should have – or at least almost – been reached. Most of the people surveyed by SteelOrbis believe that April will be stable, or that we will even see a slight drop in scrap purchase prices.
The situation on local Polish scrap market became quiet again after the rises reported last week at the end of monthly negotiations. Steel mills are refusing higher quality scrap, preferring less expensive shear material, because cash flows inside the country are quite bad at the moment, and payment conditions have been delayed to 60 days. As for exports, collection prices to export yards remained unchanged week on week at €310/mt DAP for HMS I/II 80:20.
Over the past week, Taiwan’s import scrap price has remained stable. This week Taiwanese producers’ rebar sales were also muted. Sales done three weeks ago are not consumed fully and creates a sluggish market.
Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have remained stable this week, in the range of $318-323/mt CFR. Actual deal prices have indicated a very small decline on the upper end by $1/mt to $317/mt CFR.
Offers shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk have disappeared once again this week. Market sources reported that only a shredded bulk cargo was bought at $347/mt CFR.
Vietnam’s interest for import scrap prices have recovered slightly this week amid improved construction activities.
Over the past week, offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have moved up by $5/mt on the upper end over the past week to $335-345/mt CFR this week.
Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have remained stable at $360-365/mt CFR.