Having been under pressure for weeks now, Turkey’s import scrap market learned earlier this week that a Turkish mill bought an ex-UK cargo with a significant decrease in price. While many sources were already expecting a further decline in price, the extent of the decrease in the deal was surprising. The cargo in question was believed to be a stressed one. Buyers mentioned this was not the only stressed cargo or seller in the market. “There is a high number of stressed cargoes under the current circumstances because there are no buyers. Almost everyone has one cargo, while some have two cargoes on hand. But they are failing to find bids, not just attractive bids, but any bids,” a seller commented on April 16.
The second cargo of the week was transacted from Scandinavia and reflected the persisting negative sentiment in the market. Turkish mills remain reluctant to conclude deep sea and short sea scrap deals, while scrap availability is on the high side. Market sources still report that the problem in the scrap market is the lack of demand from Turkey, with sellers failing to find interested buyers. “We are failing to get bids. Some of us do not even voice offers, letting producers start the negotiations with their numbers,” a European scrap seller mentioned. In particular, scrap inventories at European export yards have attracted attention. Several market players report that inventories are very high. A major US-based scrap supplier commented, “The problem in the EU is bigger than in the US. With the euro-US dollar exchange rate at 1.136, it should be hard for them to accept lower prices. However, we hear they have reduced their collection prices to €260/mt DAP in some regions. This level was not seen in recent years. Scrap flow to yards is very slow but exporters do not really need the tonnages. They are forced to sell to maintain cash flow though.” A German sub-collector also mentioned the €260/mt DAP price for a Belgium-based exporter, adding, “The rest of the exporters are still bidding at €270/mt DAP. But we are already in a holiday mood in the EU.”
At the end of the week, the negativity among market players persisted. “We need a positive push for the price trend to change. Local steel demand and trading are slower than usual for the season. When they start, they can give us some breathing space,” a trader said. The high loan interest rates in Turkey give traders little incentive to accelerate their buying right now, and the Turkish central bank’s decision to increase interest rates has not helped. Turkish mills report that, unless their sales recover, their hands are tied, while some of them say each fall in scrap prices is negatively impacting traders’ willingness to buy steel. “The price has dropped too much. The Turkish lira-US dollar rate is not moving. There is no motivation for traders to buy rebar unless they have an ongoing project.”
Sources state that scrap bids shared by Turkish mills today, April 18, are quite lower than the most recent prices in deal. For the ex-UK cargoes offered today, bids were reported at around $325/mt CFR, while bids for ex-US bookings are rumored at around $330/mt CFR. While Turkish mills are not interested in buying, they usually voice unworkable prices to test the water. Such bids indicate that Turkish mills are not really inclined to make a full return to the market. The lack of scrap demand in Turkey raises the question of whether producers are getting ready to cut their capacity utilization rates. Most market players believe this is in fact the case, and some announcements may be heard in the coming week. “If they are not planning production cuts, such resistance to buying scrap for weeks now would make no sense in the end,” a seller said.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have decreased by 2.43 percent week on week. The prices are now 9.66 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $335-348/mt CFR.
May US prime scrap prices in the Ohio Valley are currently discussed $30/gt ($30/mt) less compared with April settled prices, on the heels of reduced demand for finished steel following continued reports that recent “panic buying” by steel end-users ahead of recent tariff announcements by the US Trump administration had abated, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“April prime scrap was down $20/gt and we’re now seeing May off by $30/gt,” said one Midwest mill insider, adding, “There is still plenty of prime scrap inventory available to mills, and possibly recent panic buys (of finished steel) are over.”
A scrap insider recently summed up the current domestic US scrap market saying, “In my opinion, the lower scrap numbers were a direct result of an increase in global economic uncertainty caused by tariffs, that made people hit the pause button at a time when things normally start to pick up for the year,” he said. “The thinking is that we might see more declines for May, but as we have seen recently, the situation with tariffs could change day to day,” he noted.
Monthly negotiations have come to an end in the local German scrap market. As SteelOrbis hypothesized last week, new deal prices registered a drop by an average €12/mt compared to last month.
With the dollar at 1.13 on the euro, deep sea exports from European ports are still difficult, and HMS I/II 80:20 collection prices for export yards have dropped to €270-275/mt DAP, versus €280-285/mt DAP last week. Most local traders are out of the market at the moment, and they are planning to remain so until May.
A downward trend in the local Polish scrap market has materialized at the end of monthly price negotiations. Most sources have reported declines by a range of PLN 30-60/mt (€7-14/mt) for local prices, whereas scrap collection prices for export yards have declined by at least €20/mt to €275/mt DAP for HMS I/II 80:20.
Poland is experiencing a paradoxical situation in its local scrap market. Higher quality scrap like E8 is abundant, whereas lower quality scrap like E1 is extremely scarce, to the point where the gap between prices of the latter and the former is shrinking, which is unusual.
The declines anticipated last week in the local Italian scrap market now seem to have materialized, although this is unusual before a holiday period. Scrap purchase prices have fallen by about €5-10/mt week on week for all categories, but trade has remained almost silent. "This is an apparent decline, perhaps due to the attempt to calm down a market that went too high in March and to be more relaxed before the stoppages," said an Italian steel mill official.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has cut its domestic scrap purchase prices by JPY 500-1,000/mt, for its Okayama, Takamatsu and Kyushu plants. The price revision only caused a drop on the lower end of the Japanese yen-based general price range, but caused an increase in all dollar-based quotations.
Tokyo Steel’s general range for H2 grade scrap price has declined by JPY 500/mt on the lower end to the range of JPY 40,000-43,000/mt ($280-301/mt) depending on the mill. The scrap purchase price for Tahara still represents the upper end of the price range. The dollar-based prices have increased by $5-9/mt as compared to April 9 due to the fluctuation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar.
Taiwan’s import scrap prices have moved down further with the influence of the declines seen in the international scrap market. “US and Turkish scrap prices are falling. Billets are also moving down. Sentiment is not good for the near future,” a source at a Taiwanese mill said.
Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have moved down from the range of $308-317/mt CFR to $300-308/mt.
Offers shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk are still nonexistent because of the significant price gap between Japanese price expectations and US containerized scrap offers.
Amid increasing negative sentiment in the global steel and scrap markets, Vietnam’s import scrap market has remained under downward pressure. The workable price levels for buyers and sellers are different.
Over the past week, offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have remained stable at $330-335/mt CFR. Bids from Vietnamese buyers are now $10/mt lower than the offers.
In the given week, ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have moved down by another $5/mt on the upper end, to $360/mt CFR.
Sentiment in Pakistan’s import scrap market remains under pressure due to global price corrections and cautious post-Eid buying. Domestic steel demand is still sluggish, with mills operating at reduced capacity and rebar prices under downward pressure. Ex-EU/UK shredded scrap offers have dropped to around $385/mt CFR or slightly below, down from last week's $390–395/mt. Despite official electricity tariff reductions, mills report no actual relief, while local scrap remains scarce. Finished and semi-finished steel prices are facing continued weakness. Local shredded-equivalent scrap prices remain at PKR 135,000–140,000/mt ($481–498/mt) ex-warehouse and tradable rebar prices are steady at PKR 235,000–240,000/mt ($837–855/mt) ex-works, despite higher official offers from mills at PKR 245,000/mt ($872/mt) ex-works.
Import scrap offers in Bangladesh have remained mostly stable this week, with a slight downward trend reflecting the global market softness. While some post-holiday recovery in steel demand has been observed, import trade activity remains moderate. Ex-EU/UK shredded scrap offers have remained at $390/mt CFR, while ex-Australia shredded is stable at $385-390/mt CFR. Ex-Australia HMS I/II 80:20 offers have remained at around $365–370/mt CFR. Ex-Singapore HMS I/II was offered at $375/mt CFR, though bids have been below $365/mt, with HMS I and PNS scrap from Singapore and Malaysia at $385/mt and $390/mt CFR, respectively. PNS offers from Hong Kong are unchanged at $390-395/mt CFR, matching those from Australia and Brazil. Some bulk deals for ex-Australia shredded were done at $380/mt CFR. US bulk HMS offers have dropped to $375/mt CFR, while ex-Japan H2 scrap has been offered at $360–365/mt CFR. Market sentiment remains cautious due to global uncertainty and high freight costs, limiting containerized scrap demand, though some interest in bulk cargoes is emerging.