At the beginning of the current week, Turkey’s import scrap market was expected to remain lively. Once again, market sources report that the number of offers may be higher than the number of buyers, limiting the upward trend of prices. “Turkish mills are maintaining their composed stance. We have not seen them back in full force in the market since May started,” a scrap seller commented. Turkish mills started the week with price increases for local rebar sales. Although this upward push on prices was met with resistance from buyers in past weeks, it nevertheless has slowly but surely been gaining some success. Meanwhile, the global markets rebounded after the US and Chinese governments reached a deal to reduce the retaliatory tariffs they had imposed on each other, following a series of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland.
On May 14, the psychological threshold of $340/mt CFR was surpassed by ex-US scrap sellers, after ex-Baltic prices supported the price of cargoes from the EU. Market sources reported that the collection prices at EU export yards were in the range of €260-267/mt DAP, with scrap flow stronger on the upper end. “Europe-based producers cut their local scrap procurement prices by €30-41/mt this month. With this move, their prices are now in line with the prices coming out of export yards. However, impurity is taken more serious by European mills, so the flow to export yards is gaining momentum,” a German-based sub-collector mentioned on May 14. “In the second half of May, the number of available cargoes from the EU may increase once again, especially with the euro weakening against the dollar,” he added. The same scenario was mentioned by the US-based sources, mentioning that the prices shared by US export yards are more attractive compared to the local mills’ workable levels after the May price cut. “We do not expect a quick surplus at the US export docks, but it is a possibility for the late May-early June period,” a major US exporter said.
The end of the week witnessed another price increase, particularly for ex-US scrap. Market sources report that the number of offers available in Turkey is on the high side. “We still only hear a couple of producers’ names in the market as potential buyers. Not all of them are showing a real interest, just the biggest ones,” a supplier commented. Another source reported that ex-US offers are at around $350-352/mt CFR. Another trader said expectations for the next scrap deals are at around $340-343/mt CFR for Europe origin and at $347-350/mt CFR for ex-US cargoes. “Turkish mills need scrap. Their recent purchasing pace has been slow. Some major mills have remained very silent in May. We expect them to become more active in the coming period. Billets are not attractive for Turkish mills yet,” a source said.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have increased by 2.23 percent week on week. The prices are now 0.29 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $340-347/mt CFR.
Following this week’s $30-40/gt ($30-41/mt) declines for May scrap settled prices in the US, the expectation for June scrap is now seen as steady to potentially lower since reported inbound flows to scrap yards remain high, while mill demand is expected to remain flat next month, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“I think sideways is where we are at today,” said one Midwest-based mill scrap buyer, adding, “Material flows will still be healthy at these price levels, and demand should stay steady.”
On Tuesday, May 13, the completion of monthly buy-cycle negotiations yielded US Midwest prime busheling scrap settle in the Ohio Valley $30/gt less than its April counterpart at $435-460/gt ($442-467/mt), while shredded scrap fell $40/gt (41/mt) to $375-380/gt ($381-386/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades saw $40/gt price drops to $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-351/mt), respectively.
Against all expectations, the current week is proving to be a quiet one for the local scrap market in Italy. The situation is in a stalemate, and it seems that all players are waiting for a sign to restart trading activities at better prices. According to some sources, this recovery - so far estimated at €10-15/mt - could begin towards the end of May. HMS scrap prices have currently been reported at €270-300/mt. The local Spanish scrap market is also stabilizing, while imports have recorded slight increases. E1 stands at €300-305/mt, while E40 stands at about €330/mt. The prices include delivery and exclude VAT.
At the end of scrap purchase negotiations in the local German scrap market, May scrap purchase prices have declined by the range of €20-30/mt, with peaks of minus €40-45/mt depending on the initial levels. Amid this pessimistic scenario, low water levels in the Rhine are still causing delivery issues. Just like in Italy, the availability of scrap in the local market is on the low side, and scrap suppliers prefer to hold their stocks instead of selling immediately, waiting for prices to rise again. As of May 15, HMS I/II 80:20 local collection prices to export yards stand at €260-267/mt, but, with a possible increase of scrap flows, those prices may lose strength.
After the monthly negotiations in Poland, scrap purchase prices of mills have confirmed a drop by €35/mt on average. The overall market conditions still see a widespread lack of material and lower volumes being traded in the local scrap market. As for exports, an important exporter in the local Polish market stated that, after two weeks of silence, purchases are slowly recovering and flows to export yards are beginning to come in again. According to SteelOrbis’ information, HMS I scrap prices to export yards stand at around €260/mt DAP, up by €10-15/mt compared to last week.
Taiwan’s import scrap prices have started to rebound this week, though market sources report that the number of offers both from the US and Japan are on the low side.
Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have moved up this week by $7/mt to $292-300/mt. Actual deal prices have also moved up by $4-5/mt to $290-292/mt CFR.
Japanese traders are still showing little interest in selling scrap to Taiwan, though there was an offer for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) bulk scrap at $318/mt CFR this week. “It is still more expensive than US containerized scrap, and there is still no Japanese bulk deal done. The last one was done in early April by Taiwan,” a source at a major Taiwanese mill reported.
Vietnam’s import scrap market has started to move up amid renewed interest from domestic steel mills, though market sources report that the mills remain cautious and are still sharing lower bids with the suppliers.
Over the past week, offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have moved up slightly on the upper end to $325-330/mt CFR. Bids from Vietnamese buyers are approximately $5-10/mt lower than offers. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam moved up and are now standing at $345-350/mt CFR.
Caution has dominated Pakistan’s steel market this week, with mills struggling amid weak demand, high inventories and continued financial pressure. In the import scrap segment, activity has remained limited due to wide bid-offer gaps. Ex-Europe/UK shredded scrap has been offered at $375/mt CFR, with deals mostly done at $370–372/mt CFR, and some reported up to $378-380/mt CFR. Ex-UAE shredded scrap has been traded around $390/mt CFR. Locally, shredded-equivalent scrap prices have risen slightly to PKR 135,000-140,000/mt ($479–496/mt) ex-warehouse. Rebar prices have held steady at PKR 235,000–240,000/mt ($833–851/mt) ex-works. Despite some signs of recovery, the market remains pressured by liquidity issues and the aftermath of recent transport protests.