SteelOrbis reported earlier this week that some older deals had surfaced in Turkey’s import scrap market, but Turkish mills’ appetite for scrap was not increasing. Most Turkish mills were expected to start buying scrap for August shipment, though they remained cautious as their finished steel sales were still sluggish. However, Turkey’s Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAŞ) has announced that, in line with its 2025 budget targets, it has increased wholesale natural gas prices effective as of July 2. While prices have been hiked for industrial and residential subscribers, no increase was announced for power plants. Natural gas prices for industrial users were raised by an average of 7.86 percent, while prices for residential subscribers increased by an average of 24.6 percent. This rise in energy prices have exerted further pressure on Turkish mills.
Turkey has continued to conclude some deep sea scrap deals in the following days. The new transactions show that the range of $335-345/mt CFR has not changed, despite the soft upward push observed in the prices offered. The lack of steel sales by Turkish mills has been exerting downward pressure, while some sources at the mills admitted that scrap prices could have increased if there had been a recovery in their sales. The pessimistic sentiment in Turkey’s import scrap market persists as all market players agree that Turkish mills’ finished steel sales have been underperforming for months now, especially exports. “With the quotas and protectionism all around the world, Turkey has lost almost all export markets or lost significant tonnages. This will not be changed in the short term. In particular, Turkey’s sales to the EU are not expected to recover from the latest quota blow,” a scrap supplier commented. Another agreed regarding the struggles of Turkish mills on the sales side, but also added, “Even with their resistance to buying scrap, citing their previous billet orders, their [Turkish producers’] scrap purchases for July shipment are very low. They have bought almost nothing for August shipment and billet offers are now for September-October shipment. They need more scrap for the near future.” A source from a Turkish mill stated today, July 3, “The second half of 2025 also looks bleak. Some mills are lowering their capacity utilization rates quietly. We hear now that some very well-known producers are in dire positions, with one even filing for bankruptcy protection. We can safely say that this summer will be very slow and silent.”
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 0.29 percent week on week. The prices are now 0.44 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $335-345/mt CFR.
July scrap pricing in the US domestic market is expected to settle mostly sideways next week, following last week’s sideways to potentially higher expectation, as uncertainty over import tariffs continues to buffet international supply chains, even as new deadlines for trade deals for affected nations approach following a 90-day pause for tariff negotiations that ends on July 9.
“Sideways seems to be the latest market call for July,” one Midwest scrap insider told SteelOrbis this week after being asked whether a higher July settled price was still possible. “We’re hearing sideways, with more certainty this week for sure,” said another scrap insider. “I’m thinking sideways still,” remarked yet another scrap buyer at a mill. “The scrap market looks the same with what I mentioned to you earlier,” said still another scrap contact, adding, “It’s going sideways apparently.”
In the third full week of June, US steel mills operated at close to 80 percent capability utilization (capacity) and produced nearly 1.79 million mt of steel, according to the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), 4.9 percent higher compared with the 1.7 million mt made in the third week of June in 2024, when mills were operating at a 76.7 percent capacity.
A mostly sideways to June scrap settled prices would peg US Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley for July at $435-460/gt ($443-468/mt), while shredded scrap could settle at $375-380/gt ($381-387/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades stood could post $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-387/mt) settled prices, respectively, scrap insiders said.
A general sluggishness is characterizing the Italian scrap market, and many players are already unusually absent due to the summer holidays. Although Italian scrap dealers have reported some deals closed at unchanged or slightly lower levels, specifically dropping by €5-10/mt in spot contracts, scrap volumes required by mills continue to be very low, as well as scrap availability.
Bearish sentiment has emerged in the local scrap market in Poland as negotiations for the July buying cycle begin. Although it is too early to say, several market players have already expressed expectations of a drop of €5-10/mt in scrap prices. In the local market, current prices are observed at €256-270/mt DAP for HMS I equivalent grade scrap, at around €245/mt DAP for HMS II equivalent grade scrap and around €268-273/mt DAP for bonus scrap. As for the export market, the collection prices from export yards are standing at around €255/mt DAP for HMS I.
The beginning of July has turned out to be very slow in the local scrap market in Germany. Contrary to previous expectations of stability, however, rumors of a possible drop by around €10/mt in mills’ purchase prices are already emerging in the market. HMS I/II 80:20 scrap collection prices to export yards have been reported at €250-255/mt DAP this week.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has cut its domestic scrap purchase prices by JPY 500/mt in several regions. This is the fourth consecutive drop in Tokyo Steel’s scrap prices since June 2. The general range for H2 grade scrap price has moved down by JPY 500/mt on the lower end to the range of JPY 38,000-41,000/mt ($264-284 267-284/mt) depending on the mill. The scrap purchase price for Tokyo Bay now represents the upper end of the price range. Given the changes in the exchange rate, the dollar-based quotations have declined by $3/mt on the lower end and remained stable on the upper end as compared to the levels mentioned on June 28.
Following the stable trend observed in Taiwan’s import scrap market in previous weeks, SteelOrbis has learned that ex-Japan scrap prices offered to Taiwan have dropped this week. Market sources explain that demand for Japanese scrap both from Taiwan and Vietnam is weak, while demand in the local Japanese scrap market is no different. “The price cut announced by Tokyo Steel earlier this week shows the situation in their local market,” a Taiwanese source reported. Over the past week, offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have remained stable in the range of $295-297/mt CFR. Prices offered for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk cargoes have declined from last week’s $314-325/mt CFR to $309-315/mt CFR.
Vietnam’s demand for import scrap has continued to slow down this week as the rainy season in the country is negatively impacting the steel sector. Over the past week, offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have remained stable at $320-325/mt CFR. Meanwhile, ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have moved down by another $10/mt to around $335/mt CFR. The Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap are still at JPY 41,000/mt ($284/mt), stable week on week. The FOB-based export price remains at JPY 42,000/mt ($291/mt) for the grade in question, again moving sideways on dollar basis.