July scrap pricing in the US domestic market is expected to settle mostly sideways next week, following last week’s sideways to potentially higher expectation as uncertainty over import tariffs continues to buffet international supply chains, even as new deadlines for trade deals for affected nations approach following a 90-day pause for tariff negotiations that end July 9.
“Sideways seems to be the latest market call for July,” one Midwest scrap insider told SteelOrbis this week after being asked whether a higher July settle was still possible. “We’re hearing sideways, with more certainty this week for sure,” said another scrap insider. “I’m thinking sideways still,” remarked still another mill scrap buyer. “The scrap market looks the same with what I mentioned to you earlier,” said still another scrap contact. “It’s going sideways apparently.”
While a clearer July scrap consensus has now emerged, continued uncertainty in the Mideast and confusion around reciprocal tariffs might limit movement in the local and international finished steel markets that could have been more supportive for a higher July settlement next week.
A mostly sideways to June scrap settle would peg US Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley for July at $435-460/gt ($443-468/mt), while shredded scrap could settle at $375-380/gt ($381-387/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades stood could post a $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-387/mt), settle respectively, scrap insiders said.
In the US Northeast, a sideways to June scrap settlement could yield US Northeast July busheling scrap at $380-400/gt ($387-407/mt), while shredded grades could settle at $325-335/gt ($330-342/mt). P&S and HMS grades could settle at $295-305/gt ($300-310/mt) and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respectively, scrap insiders said.
In the weekly domestic flat steel markets, spot pricing was steady to higher with most hot-rolled coil trade pegged steady at $890/nt ($981/mt), or $44.50/cwt. Cold-rolled coils and coated steels moved higher versus previous weekly average pricing.
This week, international scrap insiders told SteelOrbis Turkish mills remain under pressure from recent firm scrap prices and the recent natural gas price hike announcement, while weaker rebar sales in both local and export markets have been pushing rebar prices downward.
Recent media reports indicate local scrap prices could remain strong as US mills appear to be operating at higher capacity rates. And, as traders gear up for the next domestic mill buying period, they may be keeping a more trained eye on both US steel production figures and overseas scrap demand.
In the third full week of June, US steel mills operated at close to 80 percent capability utilization (capacity) and produced nearly 1.79 million tons of steel, according to the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), 4.9 percent higher compared with the 1.7 million tons made in the third week of June in 2024, when mills were operating at a 76.7 percent capacity.
Additionally, output during the week ending June 21 was 0.2 percent higher compared with the previous week, according to AISI. At the same time, media reports indicate a spike in bids by exporters is putting a strain on supply that is rippling into the domestic market.