As the SteelOrbis Fall 2025 Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting drew to a close, Turkish mills managed to curb the uptrend of deep sea scrap prices somewhat by accepting just a slight price increase. Most market sources at that time thought that deep sea scrap prices had some more room to increase.
As Turkey completed its scrap purchases for October shipment, Turkish steel producers have started to seek available cargoes for November shipment. Few deals have been done for this shipment period if any, while sellers maintained a cautious stance during the IREPAS conference held in Munich. As scrap suppliers expect deep sea prices to remain firm with a tendency to increase, they are in no rush to conclude sales to Turkey.
Currently, offers from the US for benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap are at $350/mt CFR. US sellers are not inclined to accept lower price levels, market sources report, citing their struggle to collect HMS grades from their local market. As SteelOrbis reported in its previous reports, the livelier demand in the local US market for HMS grades is the result of stronger domestic rebar demand after the import tariffs. “There is potential for ex-US scrap prices to move up towards $348-349/mt CFR again. Turkish mills have not bought cargoes for November shipments yet. Therefore, when we started to seek them, we realized that there are not many offers,” a source at a Turkish producer commented on October 1. On the other hand, the number of Turkish mills in the market is on the high side, supporting the idea that higher price levels in actual deals can be expected in the coming round of bookings.
European sellers are under pressure from their collection costs and the euro-US dollar rate and scrap flow to yards is still slower than usual. “This means the bottom of deep sea scrap prices is very firm. Although we expect prices to move up slightly, we do not expect them to exceed the $348-349/mt CFR range,” another buyer from Turkey told SteelOrbis. European scrap sellers are now aiming for higher than $340/mt CFR, SteelOrbis hears, though bids are still lower than this level. The collection prices in the EU-based export yards are currently at €240-245/mt DAP, while European producers are planning to cut their domestic scrap procurement prices. “The price gap between the local and export markets is closing. European mills were paying higher than export yards. With the former seeking to reduce their purchase prices, scrap flow to export yards can accelerate a bit,” a German-based sub-collector mentioned.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved sideways week on week. The prices are now stable month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices in the range of $337-344/mt CFR.
US scrap pricing forecasts for October moved lower this week on a combination of expectations for lower outage-related scrap purchases by domestic mills during October as plant maintenance continues, and because scrap export data from SteelOrbis reveal the reduced appetite of Turkish and other scrap buyers for US scrap as global steel demand wanes and countries enact more protectionist trade policies.
For the first week of the last four weeks surveyed, the expectation for reduced October scrap prices now includes Midwest shredded scrap grades, with a hint of lower pricing possible for obsolete scrap grades like HMS and P&S scrap. Scrap insiders also said early this week that domestic mills had begun canceling remaining September deliveries, a sure sign that mills expect lower prices could be forthcoming.
“It sounds like the scrap market is going to be down for October,” remarked one Midwest scrap insider, adding, “Mills have started to cancel their September orders.”
“This week, primes are down $20-30/gt, while shred pricing is now also seen $10-20/gt lower,” another mill-based scrap buyer said. “There is very ample inventory, and reduced demand at mills in outage will drive prices down. Also, for the first time, we’ve also seen lots of shred offers in the Midwest this week,” he noted.
Based on this week’s updated October outlook, an average $25/gt decline expected for prime scrap grades could net a delivered US Midwest prime busheling scrap price in the US Ohio Valley at $390-415/gt ($396-422/mt), while shredded scrap at an average $15/gt decline could settle near $360-365/gt ($366-371/mt) on a delivered basis. Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades at current flat levels might trade for a fifth month at $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-351/mt), respectively, SteelOrbis monthly scrap data show.
Following the SteelOrbis Fall 2025 Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, the European scrap market is still showing signs of weakness and pessimism. The European Union is witnessing a stagnation in demand for finished products in all countries, which is leading to a drop in scrap prices even though scrap imports from Turkey are showing signs of gradual firmness.
In Italy, a further weakening of ex-works rebar prices is causing steel producers to attempt to lower their scrap purchase prices by at least €15/mt, with possible occasional declines of €20/mt.
In Germany, the market mood is not better either. Also here, the market is worried about a drop by €15/mt in the October round of scrap purchases by mills. According to sources, long steel ex-works prices have also declined in Germany over the past month, and scrap will have to follow suit.
In Poland, steel mills are reporting full warehouses, and several of them are planning to stop production for some time in October and November. Scrap demand from export yards seems to be slightly better, but the still-high euro-dollar exchange rate does not allow scrap distributors to raise their collection prices too much, which continue to be in a range of around €240-245/mt DAP for HMS I scrap.
Taiwan’s deep sea scrap prices have remained relatively stable in the current week. Ex-US scrap prices have trended in a narrower range this week, while Japanese sellers have been quiet once again.
Over the past week, offer prices for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers have remained relatively stable at $295-307/mt CFR as compared to last week’s $299-302/mt CFR. Offers for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk cargoes have been silent this week, with the last offer heard two weeks ago at $318-322/mt CFR.
Prices for both ex-US and ex-Japan scrap in Vietnam have moved sideways over the past week. Market sources report that Vietnam’s demand for Japanese scrap has been improving gradually, though with demand and supply still in balance.
Current offers from Japan to Vietnam are still at $325/mt CFR, while the workable level for this grade has remained at $320/mt CFR.
Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers are still at around $340-350/mt CFR Vietnam. Sources report that workable levels are at around $335-340/mt CFR.