Following the SteelOrbis Fall 2025 Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, the European scrap market is still showing signs of weakness and pessimism.
Among the many topics discussed at the event, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the decline in demand for finished goods and China's overcapacity are still causing uncertainty and worsening the mood of European market players. India's emergence as the world's second-largest steel producer is also worrying them, particularly due to carbon issues. What players in the European Union steel market are claiming, in fact, is a lack of fairness. While, on the one hand, they must submit to a number of strict parameters related to environmental protection - which lead to a significant increase in production costs, transport, etc. - the Indian subcontinent continues to produce indiscriminately without regulations, in terms of emissions or of output volumes, European market players stated.
At a micro level, however, the European Union is witnessing a stagnation in demand for finished products in all countries, which is leading to a drop in scrap prices even though scrap imports from Turkey are showing signs of gradual firmness.
In Italy, a further weakening of ex-works rebar prices is causing steel producers to attempt to lower their scrap purchase prices by at least €15/mt, with possible occasional declines of €20/mt. When asked about the feasibility of this drop, an Italian scrap trader commented, "I would like to say no, but last week I bought from my suppliers at - €15/mt without encountering much resistance. [Scrap] demand is scarce, and producers’ costs are high. I fear that this reduction will materialize." Another source also said he was inclined to believe the reduction would happen, but he stressed a certain lack of supply of some scrap categories such as HMS and busheling.
In Germany, the market mood is not better either. Also here, the market is worried about a drop by €15/mt in the October round of scrap purchases by mills. According to sources, long steel ex-works prices have also declined in Germany over the past month, and scrap will have to follow suit. "I heard the same. Strange times. The economy is down. Energy is too expensive and customs duties high. I don’t think that we will see a positive development before the end of the year," a German scrap seller commented.
Finally, in Poland, market players still report an overall weakness in the scrap market. Steel mills are reporting full warehouses, and several of them are planning to stop production for some time in October and November, taking advantage of the weak finished steel demand to carry out their annual maintenance. Scrap demand from export yards seems to be slightly better now that Turkey has shown signs of recovery, but the still-high euro-dollar exchange rate does not allow scrap distributors to raise their collection prices too much, which continue to be in a range of around €240-245/mt DAP for HMS I scrap.
The question remains, though - how far will local scrap markets in Europe be able to fall before collection stops, putting raw material supplies at risk for producers? The latter still need to produce since their financial results in 2025 have not been brilliant so far.