As anticipated by SteelOrbis, Turkish mills have had to increase their deep sea scrap prices slightly after failing to find suitable cargoes for October shipment. Over the past week, deep sea scrap sellers had been rejecting Turkish mills’ bids at low levels of around $325-330/mt CFR, citing their collection costs and weak profitability.
Meanwhile, an Izmir-based producer has also concluded an ex-UK booking for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $337/mt CFR. This shows that suppliers have a stronger hand as compared to Turkish mills. The reference price for ex-UK/EU scrap has risen to $337/mt CFR, up a further $4/mt. This increase was anticipated by SteelOrbis in its report published yesterday, September 25.
As European export yards have failed to reduce their collection prices, an upward push on prices by suppliers was inevitable. A German-based sub-collector mentioned that it sold some scrap to Belgium at €230/mt DAP, while another sub-collector in Germany said it is impossible for scrap flow to be sustained at such price levels. SteelOrbis has learned that scrap collection prices at EU-based export yards are currently in the range of €235-240/mt DAP once again. On the other hand, the fluctuation of the euro-US dollar rate can create a momentary firmness or a softening on paper. Today, the rate declined to 1.168, but the trend for the coming week is difficult to predict, though no strong impact on offer prices is expected.
Under the current circumstances, SteelOrbis’ reference price for ex-US scrap has been increased to $344/mt CFR, while ex-Baltic scrap prices have been revised to $339-341/mt CFR.
Turkey’s scrap requirements for October shipments have almost been completed, if not already fully met, though the changes in the inward processing regime in Turkey may cause Turkish mills to increase their purchases in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, Turkish mills’ recent rebar sales in their local market have been done with tight margins. According to a source at one producer, “Despite the livelier demand in the market this week, we cannot say the sales made money for us.” Meanwhile, a scrap supplier, reading the situation differently, commented, “Their billet and rebar sales have accelerated. Therefore, they will need more scrap, which we do not have to rush to sell.” Some market sources think the final deals for October shipment will be done during the IREPAS meeting in Munich on September 28-30, while others think bookings for November will also start during the event. “No price decline is expected as we have hit the bottom and the price trend has already turned upwards. We shall wait and see if this new $333-340/mt CFR range will be maintained.” SteelOrbis considers that Turkey’s import scrap prices have found some fundamental support from the cost and supply side, though no sharp movements in prices are expected in the short term.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 2.95 percent week on week. The prices are now 0.22 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $337-344/mt CFR.
US scrap pricing for October is seen sideways to $20/gt lower as a result of expectations for lower outage-related scrap purchases by domestic mills next month and because scrap export data from SteelOrbis reveals that Turkish and other scrap buyers have a reduced appetite for US scrap as global steel demand wanes and tariffs continue to challenge profitability metrics.
The weekly scrap expectation results differ little from those reported seven days ago when most scrap survey respondents said October pricing could be sideways to down without citing a price level for primes, citing many of the same reasons reported this week.
“We are hearing sideways (pricing to September) for cuts and shreds, while potentially down on primes again, given continued excess prime scrap in the market,” said one US Midwest scrap insider. “The majority of the discussions in scrap market circles seems to be negative to the tune of $20/gt or so on primes for October,” another scrap insider said. “I believe it’s the effect of outages on demand at mills coupled with a very poor export market that is contributing to the negativity on the price outlook.”
According to monthly customs data collected by SteelOrbis, in the first seven months of 2025 exports of ferrous scrap to Turkey alone fell by nearly 19 percent from the equivalent period one year earlier.
Based on a predominant October sideways to $20/gt decline expected for prime scrap grades, US Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley could settle at $395-420/gt ($403-428/mt), while shredded scrap could settle flat to September at $375-380/gt ($381-387/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades could trade flat for a fifth month in a row at $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-387/mt), respectively, the SteelOrbis monthly scrap data show.
Another quiet week has passed in the Italian scrap market. Spot prices have remained largely unchanged, with reports of just occasional downward adjustments by a few euros.
Scrap availability in the market remains high amid overall scarce demand. Considering the slight downward variations that have been accumulating during the month, scrap price levels in Italy are now standing at €270-295/mt delivered to mill for HMS grades E1 and E3.
September has been very subdued in terms of trading activity in the local German scrap market, amid hopes for a recovery that would come after the summer holidays, which did not materialize.
Mills’ capacity utilization rates have recovered since the summer, now standing at around 77 percent. A source has reported greater availability of material for sale from scrap dealers. According to some rumors in the market, a couple of scrap yards in Germany have had to declare bankruptcy and have stopped their operations.
According to the latest data provided by Bundesvereinigung Deutscher Stahlrecycling-und Entsorgungsunternehmen e.V (BDSV), the new reference price for the benchmark grade E1 has declined by €3.7/mt month on month to €227.5/mt ex-warehouse.
The local Polish scrap market remained quiet this week, at the end of monthly negotiations for scrap purchases in September. The market mood is still cautious and resigned, while the finished steel segment is going through a critical period.
Finished steel demand in the Polish market is still on the low side, and mills have reduced their scrap purchase volumes. Moreover, some plants will remain closed for maintenance in October and November, and this will likely reduce scrap demand further.
Scrap availability in the local market is enough to cover the market needs so far, so much so that scrap export yards are paying around €240/mt DAP (in Gdańsk and Szczecin) to secure HMS I volumes.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has announced an upward adjustment for its domestic scrap prices in the Okayama region, up by JPY 500/mt.
Despite the price increase, the general range for H2 grade scrap price has remained stable at the range of JPY 37,000-40,500/mt ($247-271/mt) depending on the mill. Meanwhile, shindachi scrap prices of Tokyo Steel also moved sideways, at JPY 38,000-42,500/mt ($254-284/mt) delivered, down by $3/mt in US dollars.
Taiwan’s import scrap market is still characterized by a soft sideways price trend, as was seen in the previous week also. Despite the small softening seen in the ex-US scrap segment, sources considered this to be more or less a sideways movement. Meanwhile, Japanese scrap sellers have been quiet this week.
Over the past week, offer prices for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers have remained relatively stable at $295-302/mt CFR as compared to last week’s $295-307/mt CFR. Offers for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk cargoes have completely disappeared from the market this week, after last week’s offers at $318-322/mt CFR.
Over the past week, Vietnam’s import scrap market has stabilized in terms of prices, while Vietnamese buyers are cautious amid this stabilization, with some reporting that freight from Japan to Vietnam is also moving up, supporting prices.
This week, ex-Japan H2 scrap deals to Vietnam have been concluded at $320/mt CFR and slightly above, market sources report. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers are still at around $340-350/mt CFR Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap have remained stable week on week at JPY 40,500/mt ($271/mt), down by $3/mt on dollar basis. The FOB-based export price remains at JPY 41,500/mt ($277/mt) for the grade in question, down by $3/mt on US dollar basis week on week.
South Korean producer POSCO continues to buy Japanese scrap at a stable price level, even though domestic scrap prices in South Korea are once again declining, falling by KRW 20,000/mt. “POSCO’s move seems like an effort to prepare inventory for after the Chuseok holiday,” a source from South Korea commented.
POSCO has kept its bids for Japanese HS grade scrap stable at JPY 49,000/mt ($327/mt) CFR, down by $4/mt on US dollar basis as compared to the levels recorded on September 9.