On the first work day of the week, an ex-EU deal has been disclosed to the import scrap market in Turkey, indicating a relatively stable trend in terms of price. There is a resistance observed on the sellers’ side, with some mills voicing a potential slight recovery in prices. Accordingly, SteelOrbis believes that the downward pressure on Turkey’s import scrap market has eased a little.
SteelOrbis has learned that an ex-Belgium scrap deal has been done by an Izmir-based producer for 18,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $344/mt CFR, 12,000 mt of shredded scrap at $364/mt CFR and 10,000 mt of bonus grade scrap at $364/mt CFR. Prior to this deal, an ex-UK deal was done last week at $342/mt CFR Turkey for benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap.
“At the end, it will all depend on the finished steel sales of mills, but we may see another momentary recovery in the coming days. Nevertheless, I believe it will be limited,” a SteelOrbis source commented. Another EU-based seller expressed the view that the downtrend has ended and prices have hit the bottom: “Below these levels, all the other markets will be at parity. The Far East and Asian markets will have huge demand at these levels.” Another supplier said he thinks that ex-Baltic scrap prices should at least be at $350/mt CFR, while his expectations for premium grades are at $355-360/mt CFR. One steel producer commented that we may see some recovery in prices, “though I think it is a small window, and prices will fall back again in the short term to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range.” Another SteelOrbis contact stated that their expectations for Turkish finished steel exports are still weak.
With the US Federal Reserve’s new interest rate announcement to be made on September 21, all eyes are focused on the US. The general expectations for an increase of 75 base points, which is also expected to cause the Turkish lira to lose strength against the US dollar. “This may provide an opportunity for local rebar traders to buy or replenish some of their inventories, particularly missing dimensions. However, the flow of rebar to construction sites is slowing down and the season is ending. So, I think this will provide momentary support for finished steel products,” a trader commented. On September 22, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will also announce its new interest rate decision. “Mostly, people would like to see these decisions and then decide what do to,” another trader reported.
In the short sea scrap segment, silence continues. A Bulgarian supplier commented that expectations are mixed on the Black Sea side. “I think prices have more room to decline even though they seem to have stabilized after sellers resisted lower bids. However, some of my colleagues believe that prices will start moving up from the current levels,” the source reported. The latest short sea booking from Romania for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap was closed at $335/mt CFR and no new deals from there have been heard since then. An ex-Adriatic deal has been done at $345/mt CFR for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap.