The expectation for April scrap pricing trended down this week, as a short-term spike for finished steel demand appears to have moderated ahead of the much-anticipated announcements on April 2 of sweeping new reciprocal tariffs on world trading partners by the US Trump administration.
Domestic mills also are reported to have canceled March scrap deliveries, indicating to many that scrap prices for the new month could surely be headed down. “The mills are canceling March scrap orders, so they are pretty sure that the April market is lower” said one Midwest scrap insider, noting a decline in the price of next month’s scrap. “But, I have no idea by how much.”
“Yep, we’re hearing that there’s lots of cancellations of March scrap deliveries coming from the mills,” said another Midwest mill-based market insider, calling the April market down by $20-30/gt ($20-30/mt).
Based on a down $20-30/gt ($20-30/mt) April scrap expectation, prime grades of April busheling scrap in the US Ohio Valley could settle at $460-485/nt ($468-493/mt) on a delivered to mill basis, while shredded grades could settle near $430-435/gt ($437-442/mt) delivered. HMS and P&S grades are expected to settle near $370-390/gt ($376-397/mt), and $416-426/gt ($4-433/mt), respectively, on a delivered to mill basis.
In the US Northeast, monthly scrap price expectations are currently seen sideways to March values with April busheling scrap seen settling near $430-450/gt ($437-457/mt), while shredded grades are discussed at $405-415/nt ($412-422/mt) on a delivered to mill basis. April HMS is seen flat from March near $375-390/nt ($381-396/mt), while P&S graded scrap is seen steady to March levels at $375-385/nt ($381-396/mt).
And, while most market observers agreed pricing for April would be lower, some suppliers still held out hope for price stability.
“It’s hard to say, but I hope for sideways at least,” said one Midwest scrap supplier. “It might be down in the $10-$30/gt range from the talk on the street, but I still think that we have a chance at sideways.”
Steel market insiders told SteelOrbis that April scrap values were headed down because a recent increase in finished steel buying activity ahead of this week’s tariff announcements from the White House had slowed.
“We’re not hearing too much new information on scrap right now ahead of the tariff announcements,” said one Midwest scrap insider. “Market activity in hot rolled coils has slowed and prices have retreated a little, as everyone (was) waiting for the news about the tariffs.”
In an April 2 Rose Garden ceremony, US President Trump announced sweeping new 10 percent minimum reciprocal tariffs against all US major trading partners, friend and foe alike. As part of Trump’s new plan, reciprocal tariff levels are to be set at 50 percent of what major trade partners currently charge US importers.
No reciprocal tariffs will be applied to imports of steel and aluminum. For now, goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the USMCA agreement will largely remain exempt from tariffs., except for auto exports and steel and aluminum, which fall under separate tariff policies.
“I think the tariffs are going to slow things down from a trading perspective pretty much immediately,” said another finished steel insider. “In my opinion, prices paid for many household items like shoes are going to increase, and the next six months are going to be mayhem.”
“The good news is that for every (steel) importer, the Section 232 tariffs are the same at 25 percent,” the insider added. “That’s fair, so I guess we can work with that.”
