It is observed that demand for Turkish rebar in the international markets has remained at low levels since last week. In the meantime, Turkish rebar export prices have declined by $20/mt on the lower end week on week amid the slight decreases seen in import scrap prices in Turkey which had halted their upward trend in the middle of March, and also due to the weakness of domestic demand received by Turkish rebar mills. Accordingly, Turkish rebar mills’ export offers are currently at $590-610/mt FOB on actual weight basis, with the price range widening as compared to last week. Meanwhile, actual transactions are heard at prices closer to the lower end of this price range, while the offer prices in the range of $605-610/mt FOB are mostly given by suppliers who are waiting for a clearer trend in the market. Additionally, buyers’ firm bids for Turkish rebar are currently at around $580/mt FOB on actual weight basis, while firm bids slightly under this level are also heard.
There are multiple reasons why international buyers are in no rush to conclude new steel bookings. Chinese billet and rebar export quotations are currently at $480-500/mt FOB and $550-560/mt FOB, respectively, having fallen further over the past week, adding further to apprehensions in the global steel market. With Chinese billet and rebar prices not having declined to such low levels since January, buyers are maintaining a cautious stance due to their expectations of downward pressure on the global steel market amid the lower prices from China.
On the other hand, following the 25 percent import tariff signed by US President Donald Trump on March 8 within the scope of the Section 232 investigation, uncertainty in the global steel markets had increased, while countries such as Brazil, Germany and Turkey started negotiations with the Trump administration regarding exemptions from the tariff in question. After the announcement of the tariff, first Canada and Mexico were exempted and then it was heard that Australia will not be subject to the tariff either. Additionally, a day before the actual implementation of the tariff, the Trump administration announced that the European Union, Brazil, Argentina and South Korea will also be temporarily exempted.
It has become impossible for Turkey to conclude steel sales to its most important export market, the US, as Turkey has failed to obtain a tariff exemption, and also given the increase in the number of countries that have been exempted. This situation is expected to result in overall difficulties for Turkey’s steel exports. With the addition of these negative developments and the declines in import scrap quotations in Turkey to the current weak demand conditions in Turkish rebar mills’ domestic and export markets, Turkish rebar export prices are expected continue their downward movement in the coming days.