Before leaders from the US, Mexico and Canada signed the USMCA trade deal late last week, many in the US import rebar market wondered if exclusion from Section 232 tariffs would be part of the finalized agreement. However, the tariffs remain in place as the agreement now heads to each country’s legislature for ratification. Sources say they hope enough members of congress in the US vote against the USMCA based on the tariff situation, but nothing will be known until at least Q1 2019.
Until then, Mexico is still a moderate source of rebar imports to the US, but sources say the country would have a “much larger slice of the market share” if it was not subject to a 25 percent tariff. With 9,213 mt of rebar imports attributed to Mexico in October according to preliminary census data and 10,676 mt of import permits for November, the US’ southern neighbor is once again the second largest source of US import rebar, behind Italy. Prior to AD/CVD ruling against Mexican rebar a few years ago, Mexico was consistently behind Turkey in the top-two sources of US import rebar.
Sources say Mexican rebar offers to the US are just below offers from Italy and Spain, which are both still hovering around $38.50 cwt. ($849/mt or $770/nt) DDP loaded truck at US Gulf ports. Position availability at the ports is dwindling, sources say, with already-arrived material prices closer to $36.00 cwt. ($794/mt or $720/nt) DDP loaded truck at US Gulf ports. Demand has slowed in early winter, and sources say import rebar offer prices to the US should remain stable until the new year.