Semis exports lessen domestic crude steel supply in China

SteelOrbis Shanghai According to the latest figures released by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), while Chinese crude steel production for August climbed a little month on month, the growth rate decreased by a significant amount compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, because of the sharp increase in semis exports for August, the crude steel supply for that month declined a little month on month. Influenced by this, Chinese semi finished steel prices moved steadily up in August. Over the past week, billet prices continued to climb slightly, while slab prices remained stable. On September 13, the price of common carbon billet in Tangshan, Hebei Province increased RMB 10/mt ($1) to RMB 2,860/mt ($360), that of 20MnSi remained at RMB 2,920/mt ($367). The ex-factory price of slab from Laiwu Steel is at RMB 2,900/mt ($365), equal to the level of the previous week. The CISA statistics indicate that Chinese crude steel production totaled 36.70 million mt in August, up 17 percent or 610,000 mt year on year. This August production figure is down 5.2 percentage points in growth compared with the previous month. Chinese semi finished steel exports for August totalled 1.13 million mt, while imports reached 50,000 mt. Therefore, the domestic supply of crude steel in August decreased 200,000 mt to 35.62 million mt compared with July. The decline in crude steel supply was the major reason for the steady rise in semis prices in August against the pressure of macro-control and off-season demand. Over the past week, Chinese billet prices were still on an upward trend, with brisk demand for common carbon billet. The billet producers in southern China are already fully ordered for contract in September, and have hiked quotations for October. Although right now the trading volume is not great, the steel mills are confident of the market. However, since long products prices in northern China moved back down over the past week, the rise in steel strip prices came to a halt, which had a knock-on effect on local rolling mills. These mills became less active in ordering billet and so common carbon billet prices only saw a slight increase with prices of 20MnSi billet remaining constant. As the major billet producing region in China, the price trend in northern China affected the other regions to a certain extent. Nevertheless, with the current strong export performance, the semis producers are not eager to lower the ex-factory prices for October. Most of them have decided to bide their time, adopting a wait-and-see approach. It is estimated that most markets will remain stable except the markets in some regions. Slab prices are also affected by the market's current state. They will continue to fluctuate slightly and may not see any increase in the short term.