Following a deal for imported scrap in Turkey at $360/mt CFR done yesterday, August 4, sentiments in the Russian billet export market, which were negative, have started to turn around. Thus, the main Russian exporters of billets have decided to leave the market, waiting for a further improvement next week and the settling of prices for both rebar and billets.
As Turkey has been the major sales destination for Russian billet lately, Russian suppliers have reacted to the rebound in scrap and have withdrawn almost all offers.
Ex-Russia billet prices have lost $12.5/mt early this week to $495-510/mt FOB Black Sea with the midpoint at $502.5/mt FOB. But on Friday the levels at the lower end of the range, which were reflecting the tradable level earlier and one rumoured deal, have disappeared.
The import billet price level in Turkey was mainly at $525-550/mt CFR early this week, but from next week suppliers are expected to increase offers far above, to $570/mt CFR as the lowest possible, early next week. “People are seeking offers. I believe we'll be able to see the $580/mt CFR level for billet and, if the increase continues, after next week it will be $600/mt CFR, but not more,” a seller source said.
“It is still unclear what the billet price level is. I believe that scrap will shoot first to $375-380/mt CFR, and then even maybe to $400/mt CFR. That is why it is hard to say where the new billet price will settle,” another market source said.
“If the mood persists, we can test $575-580/mt CFR [for ex-Russia billet] in the first step,” one more market source said.
There has been information also that a Marmara-based mill has sold billet in the local Turkish market to Izmir at $600/mt CFR at least, according to sources. “A seller would not sell his billets below $600/mt… It would support import levels as well,” a trader commented.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has increased to $510/mt FOB Black Sea on Friday, up by $7.5/mt on average from the previous day, but still $5/mt below the level seen last Friday. The current price reflects an indicative level only and is expected to increase amid firm offers from next week.