October long prices are stable, but will levels be maintained till end of month?

The general expectation of the market in September was that October would be a slower month. We see, in fact, despite there is no price decreases in the Mediterranean and the Middle East that demand is indicating a slight decrease. In some regions in Turkey, price decreases on a TRY basis were registered. The constant fluctuation of the US Dollar caused prices to change in terms of that currency. The 12 mm rebar price in Turkey's Izmir and southern regions was at TRY 920-930/mt. Also in Izmir, sales as low as TRY 910-915/mt were seen. However, price levels were higher in Turkey's Marmara region. The 12 mm rebar price in that region was at around TRY 950/mt, but discounts were heard of for big tonnages. The demand in the domestic market can still be considered strong. There isn't any accumulated stock in the local mills' warehouses. All long products being produced are being sent to the market. However, current demand is not sufficient to force an increase in prices. For now, it appears that this demand has served to prevent what would have been bigger falls in prices. The prices considered high in the domestic market are a factor in export offers for rebars being made at $515-525/mt FOB. However, it seems that the slowdown in the Mediterranean and Middle East prevents a positive return for these offers. The Iranian market, which was a strong buyer in the previous weeks, reduced its purchases with the huge rebar exports from Turkey. The latest sales concluded to the Iraqi market are at $520-525/mt ex-works. Demand in Italy and Spain has seen a slowdown. A price decrease of Euro 10/mt has been heard in Spain. For now, the AENOR-certificated rebar price in Spain is at Euro 530-540/mt delivered to customers' premises. The prices in Italy remain unchanged compared to last week. The rebar price in Italy is at Euro 445-450/mt ex-works, with there being little demand for long products. At the same time, the export market is quiet. Given the seasonal trends such as the slowdown in the Russian domestic market, the Ukrainian mills - especially Mittal Steel Kriviy Rih - may focus on the Algerian market again. This may put the export situation of the Italian mills in some difficulty. The possibility of an export slowdown may cool off the Italian domestic market in the coming period. Prices in North Africa and the Middle East remained unchanged compared to last week. The domestic and export prices in Egypt retained their previous levels. Egypt-origin rebar offers for export are at $505-520/mt FOB. Offers for neighboring country Sudan are at $520/mt FOB, while the offers for other regions are at $505-515/mt FOB Egyptian ports. The price level of rebar in the local UAE market is at AED 2,050-2,060/mt ($558-561/mt) delivered to site on a theoretical weight basis for 5-month deferred payment, excluding VAT. Trading firms have stated that they are being forced to conclude contracts at these levels as the demand in the domestic market has slowed down. The main reason for the slowdown of demand - always strong in the UAE - can be said to be the month of Ramadan. Demand may become strong again after Ramadan. In October, the prices in the Mediterranean and the Middle East remained almost unchanged, while demand began to experience a slight slowdown. The month of Ramadan was a contributing factor to this slackening off, especially in the Middle East. As regards the Black Sea region, in Russia the approaching winter reduced demand. Russia, which last month concluded rebar imports from neighboring countries, including Turkey and Egypt, may return to the markets as exporter again after October. In addition, Ukrainian mills, which directed most of their production to Russia, may again start making aggressive long product offers to the Mediterranean and Middle East.