Ex-India billet prices have been kept stable in the past week, amid silent trade conditions with most large local mills not submitting offers, taking their cue from other sellers in most Asian markets, awaiting a new price trend to emerge even as the domestic market has entered a downtrend in reaction to reverses suffered in long products, SteelOrbis learned from trade and industry circles on Thursday, February 6.
The reference price for ex-India billet has remained stable at $440-460/mt FOB this week, with some producers holding even higher offers, not targeting export sales. Overall export prices from India are considered ‘notional’ as local mills were not even submitting discounted offers, unlike in some previous weeks.
“Like most other global sellers, Indian mills are also in wait-and-watch mode in terms of selling semis overseas. Apparently, the market may have bottomed out and the new price trend should be on an upward curve once business in China picks up. But there are a number of uncertain and unknown elements on the near horizon,” an official at a private mill said.
“Primary among the uncertainties is the tariff imposed by the US. This will change the flow of supplies across global trade supply chains. How fast or how much of this happens in not clear. It is possible that the global surplus from the impact of the tariffs will flow into the Asian region, circumventing normal trade forecasts,” he said.
According to another official at a government-run mill, pressures to sell overseas despite the recent downturn in the local market will be limited. Inventories of semis at large mills are “comfortable and manageable” despite the recent downturn in long products and pressure to export will be low, at least in the short term.
In the local market, the softening of long products slowed down the offtake of semis by secondary mills, reversing the gains in billet trade prices in local sales. Billet trade prices are down INR 600/mt ($7/mt) to INR 41,600/mt ($475/mt) ex-Mumbai and down INR 900/mt ($10/mt) to INR 38,600/mt ($441/mt) ex-Raipur in the central regional market.
$1 = INR 87.50