After an extended hiatus from the US wire rod market, Mexico’s new anti-dumping margins of 2.13 percent—lowered from 12.08 percent—has virtually guaranteed the country’s re-emergence, although sources are mixed about the potential impact on the import market. As it is, demand for wire rod in the US remains lackluster, and import tonnages from Turkey are on a downtrend despite a decent margin between offer prices and US domestic spot prices. For Mexico to regain the market share it lost after the DOC levied prohibitive margins years ago, sources say Deacero (the only mill so far to receive a significantly discounted levy) will have to offer for much less than Turkey’s current offer range of $24.50-$25.50 cwt. ($490-$510/nt or $540-$562/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports.
Of course, that would put the Mexican producer in a quandary, not wanting to repeat the “reckless” pricing policies of the past and aggravate the DOC, according to sources, so offer prices closer to the existing market are much more likely—which will probably be a relief to US domestic wire rod mills, who don’t need any added pressure from another competitor. As it is, mills are reportedly having enough difficulty pushing transactions to the higher end of the $26.50-$27.50 cwt. ($530-$550/nt or $584-$606/mt) ex-mill spot range.