Global View on Billet: Prices hold stable, only cautious optimism seen from Asia

The global billet market has posted minimal changes in prices this week since, even though China has returned from its holiday, there has been no definite trend settled in Asia amid the ongoing limited levels of demand. However, cautious optimism prevails for March.

The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-China 3SP billet stands at $440-450/mt FOB, where the upper end of the range gained $5/mt compared to the last day before the long holiday. The RMB’s appreciation against the US dollar and the upward movement of futures prices in the middle of the week have been the main supporting factors. New firm offers from China are at $445-450/mt FOB, but they are rather rare at the moment as the market has not fully resumed work after the holiday. Major buyers in Asia and the Middle East still see the tradable level for Chinese billet being not above $440/mt FOB. Shanghai once again has announced a relaxation of home purchase rules, adding to the positive sentiments. In addition, some steel companies in the north of China have received temporary voluntary emission reduction notices for the 2026 NPC & CPPCC sessions. They will need to implement phased emission reduction controls from March 4 to March 11, with blast furnace loads being reduced by no less than 30 percent.

The Indonesian mill has maintained its billet and slab prices at $455/mt FOB and $470/mt FOB, respectively, while its wire rod offers are still at $485/mt FOB. April shipment allocation is available only for billet and wire rod, while the producer is offering slabs for May shipment.

In Southeast Asia, offers for 5SP billet of Asian origins to the Philippines have been reported at $460-470/mt CFR, compared to sporadic sales done at $455/mt CFR early in February. Some buyers claim they had offers at $460/mt CFR in the middle of this week, even though this level is already considered to be rather low by a number of sellers. Some traders have hiked offers to $465-470/mt CFR for the Philippines, but most importers said that the number of offers has been very limited since Wednesday as even optimistic sellers are not sure of the trend, at least for now. But the main focus is still on alternative cheaper billet options from sanctioned sellers. There has been a rumor about a sale of 30,000 mt of 150 mm 3SP billet at $450/mt CFR or below for May shipment to Thailand, and, though there has been no confirmation about the origin, most market sources agree that this is most probably from Russia or Iran.

In Turkey, billet prices have settled at $500-505/mt ex-works in the domestic market, with buyers mostly aiming to book at not above $490/mt ex-works. The main pressure on the customers’ side comes from sliding rebar prices, which are now at $535-555/mt ex-works in sales. Still, one Turkish buyer has agreed to pay around $520/mt ex-works for a small billet cargo, most probably in the absence of its regular supply sources and needing prompt delivery. Billet offers from China have risen from $475/mt to $480-485/mt CFR by the end of the week, but with no takers in Turkey.

The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has inched up by $2.5/mt over the past week, but it is down by $5/mt compared to two weeks ago, at $435-440/mt FOB Black Sea since, even though some rises in offers have been seen from China, most Turkish buyers have been refusing to accept high price levels for import material. The tradable level for ex-Russia billet in Turkey has been assessed at $460-465/mt CFR for small and medium-size volumes. There has been a rumor that a sizable tonnage of Russian billet has been sold at an extremely low level, equivalent to below $420/mt FOB Black Sea to Syria. And even though this could not be confirmed by the time of publication, market sources believe the deal was in fact done because of the urgent need of the producer to push volumes as its previous sales to Turkey were not enough in terms of tonnage. This is why this price has been excluded from the SteelOrbis reference price. Another Russian producer is heard to have sold 20,000 mt of 150 mm billet to $440/mt FOB Black Sea, with the sales destination said to be Egypt.

Ex-India billet prices have been kept unchanged over the past week despite quiet trading activity in most key destinations and continued declines in local sales with large mills holding back offers expecting a turnaround in market conditions soon. Sources said that ex-India billet offers are stable in the range of $455-460/mt FOB and a few stray bids have been heard at around $430/mt FOB, but no deals have been confirmed as both buyers and sellers have preferred to wait for business activities to gather pace in China and the Middle East toward early next month.