Signs of improvement have been seen in the Chinese billet market after the long holiday. However, these improvements have mainly been connected with the higher indications voiced by exporters from China, considering expectations for a stronger local market in March and a reduction in steel production by mid-March, together with the stimulus measures expected to be announced during China’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-China 3SP billet stands at $440-450/mt FOB today, where the upper end of the range gained $5/mt compared to the last day before the holiday. “The RMB’s appreciation against the US dollar and the upward movement of futures [seen today, February 25, after some losses the previous day] will push prices up. $445/mt FOB may be today’s indication for billet, but there are no firm offers,” a Singapore-based source said. A few other sources agree that new firm offers from China are at $445-450/mt FOB, but they are rather rare at the moment. Major buyers in Asia and the Middle East still see the tradable level for Chinese billet being not above $440/mt FOB.
“Sentiments are warm because Shanghai released a new policy favoring housing purchases and steel production may face controls until the middle of March. So, the market posted some rebound today… But it needs a longer period to see the real effect. For now, the March market is still unclear and stocks are high, while demand is slow,” a Chinese trader noted.
Shanghai once again has announced a relaxation of home purchase rules, after the previous adjustment in August 2025. Non-residents will have more rights to buy first or second homes, while the city authorities have also significantly increased the amount home buyers can borrow under the housing provident fund scheme.
In addition, some steel companies in North China have received temporary voluntary emission reduction notices for the 2026 NPC & CPPCC sessions. According to these notices, the companies in question need to implement phased emission reduction controls from March 4 to March 11, with blast furnace loads being reduced by no less than 30 percent. Molten iron output in early March is expected to decrease, especially near Tangshan, where a lot of billet producers dealing with exports are located. The control measures are aimed to ensure stable and clean air quality during the sessions.
Offers for Chinese 5SP billet in Southeast Asia have been reported at $465/mt CFR and above, though before the holidays the tradable level in Southeast Asia was at $455-457/mt CFR. “Now, all negotiations will be at $460/mt CFR, not below,” a regional trader said.
Also, offers for Chinese billet in Turkey have been heard at $477-481/mt CFR today, increasing from $473-475/mt CFR early this week. Deals rumoured at $470-475/mt CFR before the holidays would be hard to repeat now, market sources said.
The Indonesian mill has maintained its billet and slab prices at $455/mt FOB and $470/mt FOB, respectively, while its wire rod offers are still at $485/mt FOB. April shipment allocation is available only for billet and wire rod, while for slabs the producer is offering for May.
