Global View on Billet: Market improves slightly, but mainly in mood not deals

Prices in the international billet market have been almost stable this week, but the mood has improved slightly amid better sentiments in China. However, in general buyers have been avoiding signing deals at higher levels, seeing a lack of confidence in the future trend.

Prices for Chinese billet in both local and export markets have been corrected up slightly early this week, supported by the increase in raw material prices. Nevertheless, market sources still doubt that this is a start of a firm uptrend, while it has rather been assessed as a correction since the gradual improvement in demand has been in line with rising supply and in general the market fundamentals have not changed much. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-China billet is up $5/mt compared to late last week to $430-450/mt FOB with the midpoint at $440/mt FOB.

Ex-Indonesia official offer prices for billet have declined by $3/mt from late last week to $447/mt FOB, but the level is still among the highest in the region and has been assessed as not workable.

Most offers for 5SP billet from China to the Philippines have been at $460-465/mt CFR this week, versus $452-455/mt CFR seen late last week. But a few customers in Southeast Asia, not only in the Philippines, have agreed to accept only $450/mt CFR for 3SP, and for 150 mm 5SP billet the workable prices are not very far from this - at around $450-455/mt CFR. However, there has been a rumor that some Indonesian buyers purchased ex-Iran billet at $450/mt CFR. Even though this price is among the most competitive in the market lately, not many buyers consider this workable, especially for Iranian origin. Thai buyers consider paying this price for billet from China, but if Iran wants to sell a large volume, buyers will ask for lower prices - at $445/mt CFR or so.

In Turkey’s domestic billet market, most movement has been seen in the Iskenderun region with deals for over 40,000 mt closed at $500-502/mt ex-works, with some smaller lots traded at $506-508/mt ex-works. In the Izmir region, the workable level stands at $500-505/mt ex-works as well. Overall, next week local billet prices are expected to soften, considering weaker import scrap prices.

Import offers from China to Turkey have moved up by around $10/mt to $480-485/mt CFR for November shipment, with very weak interest from the buyers’ side since not many are ready to restock in view of lower scrap prices. Turkey’s domestic billet production costs are now at around $490/mt, down $10/mt over the past several weeks, and so there is not much point in booking imports with a lead time of six weeks. Ex-Malaysia and ex-Indonesia prices are at $490/mt and $486-488/mt CFR, also for November shipments, both currently being unworkable. Turkey’s interest in Ukrainian billet is also low, while the offers are at $490/mt CFR, for November shipment.

In Turkey, one of the most discussed news items this week was the announcement of significant changes to the inward processing regime covering the mining, metal, and forest product sectors, effective October 1, 2025. Turkish mills will be under more pressure to make far more detailed calculations, especially those who import on a large scale. According to sources, during certain periods, scrap purchases may increase if semis imports are considered excessively risky in terms of export licenses.

Ex-Russia prices for billet to be shipped from the Black Sea region have posted a small decline over the past week to $435-440/mt FOB, while the offers to the Turkish market have remained at $460-465/mt CFR for end-of-October and November shipments. In view of lower scrap prices and Egypt’s recent billet safeguard, Turkey’s bids for Russian and Donbass material are at $445-450/mt CFR, with no actual transactions reported yet. Most market sources expect a further decline in workable prices for the mentioned origin, particularly under pressure from weak scrap prices and insufficient demand for rebar.

https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-prices/steel-prices-market-analyses/longs-and-billet/turkeys-billet-buyers-prefer-local-bookings-amid-mostly-unworkable-import-offers-1410458.htm?searchKey=Turkey%20billet&sc=article

Ex-India billet offers are unchanged at $430-440/mt FOB but most large mills have paused submitting official offers largely because of the absence of buyers across the Asian and Gulf regions. In the local market, the upturn in prices proved to be short-lived and they suffered a setback in tandem with finished long products. Billet trade prices have lost INR 700/mt ($8/mt) to INR 39,400/mt ($449/mt) ex-Mumbai.