Despite Mexican mills being under the shadow of a looming trade case determination (the initial injury hearing was rescheduled to November 1), traders report that on the heels of a price uptrend in the domestic Mexican rebar market, mills are trying to lift offer prices to the US. Most asking offer prices are now in the range of $30.00-$31.00 cwt. ($661-$683/mt or $600-$620/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states, with some prices heard as high as $32.00 cwt. ($705/mt or $640/nt). However, US buyers are still wary of Mexican rebar and the possibility of a retroactive duty, so traders have still been able to negotiate slightly below the range for buyers willing to take the risk. Turkish offer prices, meanwhile, have not moved from the range of $29.50-$30.50 cwt. ($650-$672/mt or $590-$610/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, although sources tell SteelOrbis that Turkish mills might take a cue from the US domestic uptrend and raise offers slightly in the near term.
It's not clear whether other import sources of rebar will follow Turkey's lead, but for now, Korean offers are still in the range of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($705-$727/mt or $640-$660/nt) DDP loaded truck in West Coast ports, with little chance of movement either way now that demand on the West Coast has stabilized somewhat.
Either way, US rebar mills are confident that they have "imports right where they want them," and have easily pushed through the entire $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) transaction price increase announced last week. Some sources believe that US mills won't wait long to follow up with another, perhaps more substantial price increase--it could be as soon as the November 1 trade ruling, which mills are confident will be decided in their favor. Due to this bullish sentiment, buying activity for US rebar has seen an uptick, as many want to stock up before spot prices rise beyond the current level of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ex-mill.