As expected, the first US rebar mill to increase prices late last week aimed for $1.50 cwt. ($33/mt or $30/nt) on February shipments. But just hours after Gerdau Long Steel North America released the announcement to customers, Nucor--the usual pacesetter for rebar price announcements--undercut its competition by $0.75 cwt. ($17/mt or $15/nt). Since then, Nucor has made it clear that the move was an intended blow to foreign competition, not domestic; but sources are skeptical of this claim. While it is true that this month has seen a surge of arriving rebar imports (tonnage levels are already up nearly 25 percent from last month), traders have not been necessarily selling positions at deeply discounted prices. Even as US buyers are already being quoted US domestic spot prices in the range of $37.50-$38.50 cwt. ($827-$849/mt or $750-$770/nt) ex-mill--reflecting the $0.75 cwt. increase--traders are still selling imported rebar on the ground for just underneath.
New import orders, on the other hand, are another story. The domestic Turkish rebar market has softened in the past week, and while this has made Turkish mills a little more flexible with US traders, current offers in the US are still standing at a firm $34.50-$35.50 cwt. ($761-$783/mt or $690-$710/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. However, these are unlikely the prices Nucor is pointing to in its claims, considering orders placed now wouldn't arrive until Q2; and since many think scrap's bounding upward trend will come to an end soon, there's no telling what the domestic market will be like that far out. Meanwhile, Mexican mills are taking full advantage of the US' upward price trend in rebar, and have raised prices by $1.50 cwt. since last week--bringing offers into the range of $37.00-$38.00 cwt. ($816-$838/mt or $740-$760/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states. However, because US prices did not jump by that much, sources say deals under the range can likely be found.