After shredded scrap dropped a meager $15/lt this week, US rebar mills are pursuing a neutral trend.
As predicted in last week's report, US rebar prices will remain neutral for March shipments. Just days after scrap numbers were released, Nucor and Gerdau Ameristeel announced a $15/nt base price increase to match the drop in the raw materials surcharge (RMS), effectively leaving transaction prices for March shipments the same as February shipments.
However, considering that domestic rebar mills have not been able to get their full February prices yet, there's a good chance that spot prices will still lag behind asking prices for the remainder of this month. In fact, sources have told SteelOrbis that mills will not likely get full February prices until March. Currently, spot prices have dipped into the range of $35.00-$36.00 cwt. ($772-$794/mt or $700-$720/nt), which was reported last week as a price exclusively offered by mill-affiliated distributors, but has now spread to the general market. Official asking prices are approximately $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) higher.
As for imports, Turkish rebar offers in the US are coming under pressure to drop, especially considering Turkey's recent slowdown in their local rebar market. So far, last week's price range of $34.50-$35.50 cwt. ($761-$783/mt or $690-$710/nt) duty paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports is still valid, but the margin between those prices and domestic spot prices are not nearly attractive enough to be worth pursuing.
South of the border, Mexican mills have not introduced any new prices for rebar in reaction to US prices, but import rebar offers will most likely stay the same, as Mexican price movements typically mirror US price movements. Therefore, the current range of $36.25-$37.25 cwt. ($799-$821/mt or $725-$745/nt) duty paid FOB delivered to US border states will likely remain the same.