US CRC prices have continued to shift downward since our last report a week ago, from $34-$35 cwt. ($750-$772/mt or $680-$700/nt), ex-mill, to $30-$32 cwt. ($661-$705/mt or $600-$640/nt), ex-mill. Oversupply and lagging demand are directly attributed to the downtrend. This week's prices are down substantially from the first week of January, 2019, when the average spot market price range was heard in the range of $42.50-$44.00 cwt. ($937-$970/mt or $850-$880/nt), ex-mill.
What's notable, is that US import cold rolled sheet from global sources has declined year-over-year, from 123,800 mt (census data) in August 2018, to 113,018 (census data) in August 2019. Domestic capacity utilization rates are also down year-over-year. On Monday AISI reported that the domestic capacity utilization rate was recorded at 79.1%, contrasted to the same reporting period last year, when the domestic capacity utilization rate was recorded at 80.1%
Rumors that mills may announce one or more price increases, as a means from preventing further spot market erosion, continue to make their way through the marketplace. However, in the absence of increased market demand and/or increased scrap prices during the November buy cycle, customers believe that mills’ likelihood for success, would be “minimal.”