Sources close to SteelOrbis have confirmed that US import HRC and CRC prices are garnering additional interest, as the price spread between imported and domestic material continues to widen.
Today, traders have confirmed that imported HRC from Korea, Turkey, Vietnam, Serbia and Egypt is being offered to the US “at or below $80 cwt. ($1,764/mt or $1,600/nt), DDP loaded Truck in US gulf coast ports. Ex-Mexico HRC is also being offered at “slightly higher prices with shorter lead times,” FOB Texas.
In contrast, US HRC prices are still firming with no end in sight. Today’s prices are being heard at $94-$96 cwt. ($2,072-$2,116/mt or $1,880-$1,920/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $93-$95 cwt, ($2,050-$2,094/mt or $1,860-$1,900/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
SteelOrbis has also learned that traders are offering imported CRC from some European countries at $95 cwt. ($2,094/mt or $1,900/nt), and Taiwan, for slightly less than $90 cwt. ($1,984/mt or $1,800/nt), both DDP loaded truck in US Gulf coast ports. US domestic CRC prices, however, are now being heard in the range of $104-$106 cwt. ($2,293-$2,337/mt or $2,080-$2,020/nt), FOB mill. Similar to HRC pricing, this week’s US CRC price range has also firmed by $1.00 cwt.
And while this week’s US domestic HRC and CRC ranges represent the most commonly heard transaction ranges, some sources have said they’ve received quotes up to $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) higher for both products.
“A lot of us get the sense that this bubble will inevitably pop,” a service center source said, noting that while everyone agrees that current price points are not sustainable in the long-term, the question lies in where prices will settle. Although most now believe that US prices will continue to firm through the end of the year, some believe that US HRC prices will “re-normalize” at above $50 cwt. ($1,102/mt or $1,000/nt), FOB mill, others believe that once supply catches up with demand (and the still-pending new capacity projects come online), prices will retreat to $40 cwt. ($882/mt or $800/nt), FOB mill “or below.”
“It’s all a guessing game at this point,” a final source added. “No one has ever seen a market like the one we’re currently in. It’s an entirely new ballgame and the best any of us can do is make a guess as to how this will play out. None of us will know until we know.”