Last week, US flats steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs announced new HRC base pricing of $37.50 cwt. ($827/mt or $750/nt), FOB mill. And while other mills did not follow with announcements of their own, that hasn’t stopped sheet prices from ticking upward.
For example, sources have confirmed that domestic spot market prices for US HRC are now trending at approximately $35 cwt. ($772/mt or $700/nt) FOB mill, against a range of $33-$35 cwt. ($728-$772/mt or $660-$700/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
CRC prices are mostly level, at roughly $43-$45 cwt. ($948-$992/mt or $860-$900/nt), FOB mill, and HDG prices are trending “about $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) less than the CRC range.
Lead times for HRC have jumped from 5 weeks to 7 weeks, whereas lead times for CRC and HDG coil are now being heard at 8-9 weeks.
Sources have said they have “absolutely'' seen a run on import order placement in the anticipation that US prices are going to rise. “Anyone who was on the fence about booking import booked some import,” a source said, noting that Korean mills ``wound up having a massive booking for January arrival.”
(It's estimated traders booked 20,000 mt of HRC from Korean suppliers.)
“Everyone seems to have recognized that if the bottom [for US prices] isn’t here now, it’s close, and they’re realizing that it’s time to lock in delivery for the first quarter,” he continued.
Another source said he believes that the fact that none of the other mills followed Cliff’s announcement shows that the market might not be at the bottom just yet for HRC, although he also believes that “buyers are smart to buy now. Better to miss the bottom by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) then not to buy at all.”
Multiple sources have also said they’re already starting to hear chatter that mills plan to raise sheet prices “as soon as the United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike against Ford, Stellantis, and General Motors comes to an end. However, the end date to that strike, now in its third week, has yet to be determined.