US HRC market struggles to find “new normal”

US domestic mills are continuing to figure out what their input cost reset numbers look like, but cheap iron ore and falling scrap prices are helping onshore producers better compete against imports.

As it stands, the most commonly reported spot price transaction range for US domestic hot rolled coil continues to hold at approximately $25.00-$27.00 cwt. ($551-$595/mt or $500-$540/nt) ex-Midwest mill, although many question if US scrap prices tick down another notch in March, if mills could offer additional flexibility to buyers. “We may have hit a brand new normal for flat rolled,” according to one Midwest-based source.  “Mills’ input costs are less so they aren’t exactly bleeding out by selling hot rolled at or just below what imports are doing.”

But that’s not to say that people are running out in a mad rush to stock their shelves.  Inventories continue to be described as “healthy,” according to other sources, and buyers are still trying to hold off as long as they can before making any purchases, because “everyone is still waiting to see when this thing hits bottom.”