US flat rolled steel prices are still seeing week-over-week increases, as sources close to SteelOrbis say they remain baffled at the 7-months-long uptrend.
“What we’re seeing now is 100% related to COVID,” a source said. “This is all linked to people trying to play catch up from when the mills all but shut down last year.”
A second source agreed. “This is a bit like watching marble sit on the edge of a razor blade. You can see it, but you know it shouldn’t be there, but it’s there anyway.”
This week US HRC prices have climbed to a range of $64-$65, ($1,411-$1,433/mt or $1,280-$1,300/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $63-$64 cwt. ($1,389-$1,411/mt or $1,260-$1,280/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
Not surprisingly, CRC prices are also up week-over-week. This week’s domestic CRC prices are being heard in the range of $74-$75 cwt. ($1,631-$1,654/mt or $1,480-$1,500/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $73-$74 cwt. ($1,609-$1,631/mt or $1,460-$1,480/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
In contrast, US HRC and CRC prices in early August 2020, when the market had bottomed, were trending at $21-$23 cwt. ($463-$507/mt or $420-$460/nt) for HRC, and at $28-$30 cwt. ($617-$661/mt or $560-$600/nt), for CRC, both FOB mill. Some SteelOrbis sources say current HRC spot market prices are “roughly three times what we paid last August.”
“This pent-up demand is unbelievable—and it looks like it’s something we’ll be dealing with until further notice,” another source said. “There’s no stopping it, and the fact that it’s insane is old news and it looks like this is something we could be dealing with until the second half of the year. The problem with that, is what goes up must come down, and the worry is that service centers will be stuck with a lot of overpriced steel when this thing starts to correct.”