Spot market prices for US domestic HRC and CRC have continued to climb since our last report a week ago, as sources stay that long lead times, logistics issues, and supply constraints continue to plague the market.
This week, US HRC prices are trending at $83-$85 cwt. ($1,830-$1,874/mt or $1,660-$1,700/nt) FOB mill, against a range of $82-$83 cwt. ($1,808-$1,830/mt or $1,640-$1,660/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
US CRC spot market prices have also firmed, and are now being heard at $93-$95 cwt. ($2,050-$2,094/mt or $1,860-$1,900/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $92-$93 cwt. ($2,028-$2,050/mt or $1,840-$1,860/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
SteelOrbis sources, however, are mixed on their predictions for the market. Whereas some believe that prices will stay firm into 2022, with next year’s average being “to be determined,” and prefer to take a wait-and-see approach to how pending new-capacity will impact the market, others believe that new capacity won’t cause prices to “crash and burn” as some economists are predicting.
One source said he believes that the “new normal” for US HRC pricing could settle at $60 cwt.+ ($1,323/mt or $1,200/nt), FOB mill, whereas others speculate that prices could shift down to $30 cwt. ($661/mt or $600/nt), FOB mill.
“It feels like high stakes gambling at this point,” a source said. “If you would have told me, at the start of the pandemic, that we’d be looking at $85 cwt. HRC in June of this year, I would have said you were nuts. But here we are.”