Last week, SteelOrbis predicted that US domestic hot and cold roll coil prices would continue to climb. This week, now that it appears that HMS, shredded and P&S scrap will settle up by $50/gt, and busheling scrap will settle up by as much as $70/gt during this month’s buy cycle, that prediction has come true.
Current US HRC prices are now being heard in the range of $60-$64 cwt. ($1,323-$1,411/mt or $1,200-$1,280/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $58-$62 cwt. ($1,279-$1,367/mt or $1,160-$1,240/nt), FOB mill, a week ago. CRC prices are also up week-over-week. As of Friday March 5, US domestic CRC prices are being heard in the range of $70-$74 cwt. ($1,543-$1,631/mt or $1,400-$1,480/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $68-$72 cwt. ($1,499-$1,587/mt or $1,360-$1,440/nt) FOB mill, a week ago.
To contrast, in early-March 2020, US HRC prices were trending at $28-$29 cwt. ($617-$639/mt or $560-$580/nt) FOB mill, whereas US CRC prices were trending at $35-$37 cwt. ($772-$816/mt or $700-$740/nt), FOB mill.
“Demand is still strong, scrap prices are up, and the mills still have the upper hand,” a source said, noting that while prices are up in the short term, he’s skeptical how long these price points can last.
For example, on Monday, AISI reported that for the week ending Feb. 27, the domestic capacity utilization rate was recorded at 77.2%. “This is still down by about 7% year-over-year but the [capacity utilization rate] keeps climbing,” the source continued. “There’s also a lot of new capacity that’s about to come online. At some point, the mills are going to catch up and once that happens, prices are bound to correct.”
And while some were hopeful that an uptick in lesser-priced import offers would help place pressure on the domestic market, that “pressure” has yet to materialize. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty in the market, and while US import HRC and US import CRC prices are attractive, there’s a good number of buyers who are concerned about booking tons for June-July delivery. No one knows where domestic prices will be by the time those orders arrive.”