Spot market prices for US domestic hot and cold rolled coils have drifted downward once again, sources note, and many are wondering when prices will finally bottom.
This week’s HRC prices have dropped by approximately $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt), to $33-$36 cwt. ($728-$794/mt or $660-$720/nt), FOB mill. US domestic cold rolled coil prices are also down by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt), week-over-week, and are now trending at $46-$48 cwt. ($1,014-$1,058/mt or $920-$960/nt), FOB mill. Deals slightly below these ranges have been heard for both products based on volume.
This is the lowest HRC prices have been since late-November 2020, and the lowest that CRC prices have been since mid-November 2020.
Current HRC and CRC prices are “nearly identical” to offshore offers, another source added, noting that “unless it’s coming in from Mexico [as ex-Mexico shipments have similar lead times to ex-US mill shipments] buyers aren’t interested.”
Similar to previous weeks, service center sources continue to report a marked hesitance to build inventory amidst uncertain market conditions.
And while some had previously expressed disbelief that still-pending new steel capacity would place downward pressure on the market, today, many sources polled say they’re starting to have concerns.
“Prices are falling, demand is good but not great, and we already had that announcement from Cleveland Cliffs that they’re planning on ramping up production rates,” a source said. “Not to mention that there’s that ArcelorMittal/ Nippon Steel joint venture EAF that’s set come online next year, a US Steel mini mill that’s set to come online in 2024, and let’s not forget about the Nucor mill that’s being built in West Virginia. I think it’s time to buckle up.”
